Earthquake Early Warning Systems Market

Market Overview

The global earthquake early warning systems market size was valued at USD 1.3 billion in 2023 and is projected to reach a value of USD 2.3 billion by 2032, registering a CAGR of 6.1% during the forecast period (2024-2032). The increased government attention on earthquake and other natural disaster mitigation also drives up the market share of earthquake early warning systems.

Earthquake Early Warning Systems are crucial for alerting consumers, businesses, and infrastructure systems to an imminent earthquake. The idea is to lessen the intensity of earthquakes by giving persons and systems seconds to minutes' notice before more damaging seismic waves hit. These technologies detect early seismic waves (P-waves), which travel faster than more destructive waves (S-waves and surface waves).

Additionally, increased awareness and use of seismic monitoring technology worldwide have fueled market expansion. Governments, corporations, and communities invest heavily in advanced warning systems as seismic activity increases and earthquakes can cause catastrophic damage. These systems detect seismic waves using a combination of sensors, networks, and algorithms, providing critical seconds to minutes of warning before devastating shaking occurs. Sensor technology, data analytics, and communication infrastructure are making significant advances in the market to improve the accuracy and speed of early warnings, fostering resilience against seismic hazards in various sectors, including transportation, infrastructure, utilities, and public safety.

Highlights

• Hardware accounts for the largest share of the market by component.
• The government is the major end-user of the market.

Market Dynamics

Global Earthquake Early Warning Systems Market Drivers

Government Initiatives and Regulations

Many countries understand the value of earthquake early warning systems in reducing casualties and infrastructure damage. As a result, they have enacted laws and policies requiring deploying such systems in earthquake-prone areas. The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) runs the Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) system. Since 2007, the EEW system known as "Kinkyu Jishin Sokuho" has been operational. When an earthquake strikes, it alerts the general public, essential infrastructure, schools, hospitals, and railways. The alerts are delivered to televisions, radios, and cell phones, allowing people seconds to safeguard themselves before powerful tremors hit. 

Japan's 2024 draft budget boosts the General Contingency Reserves by 500 billion yen from 2023 to 1,000 billion yen to aid recovery and reconstruction operations following the 2024 Noto Peninsula earthquake. The cabinet also approved 4.74 billion yen in spending from the 2023/24 reserves for disaster relief, including water, food, diapers, and heaters.

Furthermore, regulatory agencies frequently require the installation of earthquake early warning systems for essential infrastructure, including nuclear power plants, dams, and transportation networks. These solutions are vital for guaranteeing critical facilities' safety and resilience while reducing the potential impact of earthquakes on public safety and the environment. In April 2023, the California Governor's Office of Emergency Services (Cal OES) urged residents to update their emergency preparations and download the MyShake app to get earthquake alerts. California's Earthquake Warning system detects earthquakes using ground-motion sensors and sends out a ShakeAlert message when they reach a significant magnitude. The technology is intended to give California residents a few moments' notice to seek cover before shaking occurs.

Moreover, governments give financial assistance and funding for designing, constructing, and operating earthquake early warning systems. Public investment in early warning infrastructure is critical to the system's long-term viability and efficacy.

Global Earthquake Early Warning Systems Market Restraints

Infrastructure and Funding Constraints

Many governments, particularly those in seismically active regions, suffer economic limits and competing priorities, making investing in earthquake early warning infrastructure difficult. Limited financial resources for disaster risk reduction and emergency preparedness may impede the development, deployment, and maintenance of sensor networks, data processing centres, and communication systems required for early warning systems. The California Earthquake Early Warning System statewide EEWS is expected to cost USD 28 million to build and launch, with an annual personnel and operating budget of USD 17 million.

Furthermore, the gear, infrastructure, and technology required for earthquake early warning (EEW) systems can cost hundreds of millions of dollars to deploy. For example, the ShakeAlert EEW system in the United States costs approximately USD 100 million to install and costs nearly USD 39 million per year to maintain. The West Coast EEW system, which includes 1,675 seismic stations, has cost USD 42,050,000 since 2016 and is expected to cost USD 17,300,000 annually to maintain and operate. Japan's EEW system has a capital cost of roughly 11 billion JPY and requires an annual maintenance investment of 280 million JPY.

In addition, funding for earthquake early warning systems varies between high-income nations with strong disaster management frameworks and low- and middle-income countries with limited financial resources and institutional capabilities. According to the Climate Finance Shadow Report from June 2023, USD 11.5 billion is insufficient to assist low- and middle-income nations in dealing with climate change-related disasters. Nations agreed in 2022 to establish a loss-and-damage fund to help bridge budget shortfalls. Japan's catastrophe risk management budget for 2022 was roughly 3.02 trillion Japanese yen, but it was expected to be lowered to around 1.61 trillion Japanese yen by 2023.

Global Earthquake Early Warning Systems Market Opportunity

Expansion of Regional and Global Networks

There is rising support for creating regional and global networks for earthquake monitoring and early warning. Collaborative initiatives like the Global Seismographic Network (GSN) and the European-Mediterranean Seismological Centre (EMSC) enable data sharing, interoperability, and coordination among countries and regions, allowing stakeholders to leverage shared resources and expertise to improve early warning capabilities.

Additionally, regional projects seek to build collaborative networks for earthquake monitoring and early warning in specific geographic regions. These networks enable data exchange, coordination, and collaborative efforts to improve early warning capabilities. For example, the ShakeAlert system in the United States functions as a regional network spanning the West Coast, bringing together numerous seismic monitoring organizations and research institutions. The United States Geological Survey's (USGS) ShakeAlert system sent alerts for a magnitude 5.1 earthquake that impacted Southern California on August 20, 2023. The earthquake struck around 2:45 PM, just southeast of Ojai, as Tropical Storm Hilary approached the region. The earthquake was followed by two aftershocks of magnitudes 3.1 and 3.6.

Furthermore, capacity-building projects aim to improve countries' and regions' technical expertise and institutional ability for developing and operating earthquake early warning systems. Technology transfer initiatives help to transfer information, skills, and technology from more advanced to less developed regions, allowing them to build and sustain early warning systems. The World Bank's Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR) funds capacity-building initiatives in earthquake-prone areas. The Global Fund for Disaster Risk Reduction is a global partnership that gives developing nations funding, expertise, and technical assistance to lessen their susceptibility to natural disasters and climate change. The GFDRR's business strategy offers ex-ante support to high-risk countries as well as ex-post aid for expedited recovery and risk reduction following a disaster.

Regional Analysis

North America Dominates the Global Market

The global earthquake early warning systems market analysis is conducted in North America, Europe, Asia-Pacific, the Middle East and Africa, and Latin America.

North America is the most significant global earthquake early warning systems market shareholder and is estimated to grow at a CAGR of 6.2% over the forecast period. Due to financing from both the state and federal governments, several groups are focusing on innovation and developing technologies to improve the efficiency of existing earthquake early warning systems. The United States is vulnerable to earthquakes due to its geological features and tectonic activity. The country has multiple fault lines, including the San Andreas Fault in California and the New Madrid Seismic Zone in the center. In 2023, California's EEWS program will include the Earthquake Early Warning Datacasting (ED) Program, establishing a network of high-power, over-the-air transmitters nationwide to provide time-sensitive earthquake early warning. The program will also outfit important Emergency Operations Centres (EOCs). 

Furthermore, Mexico's Early Warning SystemThe fiscal year 2023-24 Earthquake Early Warning (EQ) Program RFA also contains an Earthquake Warning California (EQ) Program, which aims to implement an Earthquake Early Warning Education and Outreach Program. The initiative's deadline is April 30, 2024, and costs USD 1,140,000. Mexico also has a Seismic Alert System (SASMEX), which delivers earthquake warnings for up to 60 seconds in central and southern Mexico. SASMEX consists of four components: a seismic detecting system, a dual telecom-communications system, a central control system, and a radio warning system for users. 

Additionally, the seismic detection system has 12 digital strong motion field stations along the Guerrero coast, each equipped with a microprocessor that processes local seismic activity. Mexico City also has an earthquake warning system that uses sensors to alarm loudspeakers when a quake of a specific magnitude is detected. However, many Mexicans prefer to use private apps such as SkyAlert, which sends alerts to their smartphones.

Europe is anticipated to exhibit a CAGR of 6.5% over the forecast period, owing to several portions of Europe having low impacts from moderate earthquakes, resulting in significant losses. Even though Europe has been at the forefront of seismic network and station deployment for decades, the deployment of high-quality and cutting-edge seismic networks has shifted in recent years, with several market players focusing more on algorithmic improvements and improving the reliability of their earthquake early warning systems.

In addition, in February 2024, the Earthquake Network (EQN) sent a cross-border signal within 12 seconds after an earthquake rupture. The EQN is a smartphone-based PEEWS that provided EQN users in Turkey and Syria with up to 58 seconds' notice before significant ground shaking began.

The Asia-Pacific area, characterized by high seismic activity and earthquake vulnerability, has made significant investments in Earthquake Early Warning Systems (EEWS) to improve public safety and mitigate the impact of seismic disasters. As Japan is located in the world's most active earthquake region, it experiences more earthquakes than anywhere else. The country experiences roughly 1,500 earthquakes yearly, most of which are too weak to be felt. In January 2024, the Japanese government allocated 100 billion Yen from reserve money in the fiscal 2023 budget to help reconstruct the lives of those devastated by the New Year's Day earthquake on the Noto Peninsula. The government quadrupled its emergency budget reserves to 1 trillion Yen (USD 6.86 billion) by issuing more Japanese government bonds.

Similarly, Japan's disaster risk management budget for fiscal year 2022 was approximately Yen 3.02 trillion but is expected to be lowered to around Yen 1.61 trillion in fiscal year 2023. Japan has been preparing for earthquakes for decades, including establishing the Disaster Countermeasures Basic Act in 1961, which increased spending and planning. According to the USGS, Japan boasts the world's most sophisticated early warning systems.

Segmental Analysis

The global earthquake early warning systems market is segmented based on components and end-users.

The market is further segmented by components into hardware, software, and services.

The earthquake early warning system industry was dominated by hardware due to the growing number of hardware providers worldwide. Earthquake early-warning systems' hardware components include seismic sensors, data-gathering devices, communication equipment, and processing units. These physical components serve as the system's infrastructure, detecting seismic waves, collecting data, and transferring it to processing centers. High-quality sensors with sensitive detection capabilities are required for reliably detecting and quantifying seismic activity, while robust communication technology provides rapid warning transmission to end users. Hardware components are critical to the system's dependability, performance, and responsiveness in delivering early warning notifications to reduce the impact of earthquakes.

Software components in earthquake early warning systems include data processing algorithms, analysis tools, and user interfaces for interpreting seismic data, generating alerts, and disseminating warning messages. Advanced software algorithms are used to analyze incoming seismic signals, identify earthquakes, and estimate their magnitude and position in real time. End-users, including emergency responders, government agencies, and the general public, benefit from user-friendly software interfaces that allow them to visualize seismic data, receive alert notifications, and make decisions more quickly. Software is critical to automating system operations, enhancing alert creation, and maintaining the accuracy and dependability of early warning notifications.

The market can be further bifurcated by end-users into Agriculture and Fisheries, Transportation and Logistics, Marine, Energy and Utilities, Media and Entertainment, Government, Broadcast and Telecommunication.

The government will dominate the market throughout the projection period because of increased focus on earthquake and other natural disaster mitigation. Local, regional, and national government agencies are the principal users of earthquake early warning systems since they coordinate emergency response operations, issue public alerts, and adopt risk-reduction programs. Emergency management agencies, disaster response groups, and civil protection authorities use early warning notifications to mobilize resources, coordinate evacuation efforts, and help affected areas during seismic events. Governments can improve their ability to safeguard lives, property, and infrastructure by implementing early warning systems and lessening the socioeconomic impact of earthquakes on society.

The agriculture and fisheries sector generates a sizable market share during the forecast period. The agriculture and fishery industries use earthquake early warning systems to protect their operations, livestock, and aquatic resources from seismic threats. Early warning signals allow farmers, fishers, and agribusinesses to take preventive steps, including protecting infrastructure, animals, and equipment and implementing emergency response plans to reduce the impact of earthquakes on crops, livestock, and fisheries. These signals also facilitate the prompt evacuation of workers from fields, farms, and fishing areas, lowering the danger of injuries and fatalities during earthquake occurrences.

Recent Developments

• January 2024- Natural Resources Canada (NRCan) started working on an Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) system that will go live.
• January 2024- Güralp successfully deployed the world's first 'SMART cable' to monitor seismic activity on the floor of the Ionian Sea.
• February 2024- Kinemetrics Inc., the world leader in earthquake monitoring and response technologies, announced a commercial licensing deal with the USGS to deliver ShakeAlert®-powered earthquake early warning notifications via the OasisPlus Earthquake Response Platform.