Molybdenum 99 Market Size, Share & Trends Analysis Report By Product Type (Production by Non-Highly Enriched Uranium, Production by Highly Enriched Uranium), By Industry (Scientific Research, Medical), By Isotopic Application (Gamma Camera, SPECT), By End User (Research Institutes, Hospitals and Diagnostic Centers) and By Region(North America, Europe, APAC, Middle East and Africa, LATAM) Forecasts, 2024-2032

Market Overview

The global molybdenum-99 market was valued at USD 3.77 billion in 2023. It is estimated to reach USD 5.34 billion by 2032, growing at a CAGR of 3.96% during the forecast period (2024–2032). In recent years, the need for early and accurate chronic disease diagnosis with surging cases has been estimated to drive the global molybdenum 99 market growth. Furthermore, technological innovations in radiopharmaceuticals to enhance the efficiency and functionality of the molybdenum-99 are estimated to create opportunities for market growth.

Molybdenum-99 (Mo-99) is a radioisotope crucial for medical imaging and diagnosis, particularly in nuclear medicine. It is produced by the radioactive decay of uranium-235 and has a half-life of about 66 hours. Mo-99 decays into technetium-99m (Tc-99m), which is utilized in over 80% of all nuclear medicine procedures worldwide, including imaging of organs, bones, and tumors.

The production of Mo-99 involves nuclear reactors or particle accelerators, where uranium targets undergo neutron irradiation, followed by chemical processing to extract Mo-99. Due to its short half-life, Mo-99 cannot be stockpiled in large quantities, posing logistical challenges in its distribution and availability. The global supply of Mo-99 is critical for ensuring uninterrupted access to diagnostic scans in healthcare settings. Efforts are ongoing to develop alternative production methods to reduce dependence on uranium reactors and enhance the reliability of Mo-99 supply chains for medical applications.

Highlights

• Production by Highly Enriched Uranium dominates the product type segment.
• Medical Research dominates the industry segment.
• North America is the highest shareholder in the global market.

Market Dynamics

Market Drivers

Increasing Prevalence of Chronic Diseases

The surging prevalence of chronic diseases like cancer and cardiovascular diseases is significantly driving the demand for Mo-99 in medical diagnostics. According to the World Health Organization (WHO), cancer is the second leading reason of death globally, with approximately 10 million deaths in 2020. Early and accurate diagnosis is crucial for effective treatment and management of these conditions, leading to a surge in the use of diagnostic imaging procedures that rely on Mo-99.

Additionally, the rise in the aging population worldwide is contributing to the higher incidence of chronic diseases, further boosting the demand for Mo-99. For instance, the American Cancer Society highlights that about 1.9 million new cancer cases are diagnosed annually in the United States alone. This increasing need for diagnostic imaging in managing chronic diseases underscores the importance of a steady supply of Mo-99, driving market growth and spurring advancements in production technologies to meet the growing demand.

Market Restraint

Supply Chain Vulnerabilities

The Mo-99 market is highly vulnerable to supply chain disruptions due to its reliance on a limited number of production facilities globally. These facilities are primarily concentrated in a few countries, creating significant risks for global supply stability. Any operational disruptions, such as maintenance shutdowns, technical issues, or geopolitical tensions, can lead to severe shortages of Mo-99, impacting diagnostic imaging services worldwide.

For example, the 2018 temporary shutdown of the National Research Universal (NRU) reactor in Canada resulted in a critical Mo-99 shortage, affecting healthcare providers and patients globally. Additionally, the reliance on aging reactors and the challenges associated with transitioning to non-HEU production methods further exacerbate these vulnerabilities. The limited production capacity and logistical challenges in transporting Mo-99, given its short half-life, add to the complexity of maintaining a consistent supply. These factors underscore the need for diversified production sources and robust supply chain management to mitigate risks and ensure a stable Mo-99 supply.

Market Opportunities

Technological Advancements in Radiopharmaceuticals

Technological advancements in radiopharmaceuticals are revolutionizing the production and application of Mo-99, presenting a significant market opportunity. Innovative production methods, such as cyclotron and linear accelerator-based technologies, are emerging as viable alternatives to traditional nuclear reactors, addressing long-standing supply chain issues and reducing reliance on highly enriched uranium (HEU). For instance, NorthStar Medical Radioisotopes has developed a non-uranium-based Mo-99 production technology, which not only ensures a reliable supply but also enhances safety and regulatory compliance.

Additionally, advancements in automated and remote-controlled radiopharmaceutical production are improving the efficiency and precision of Mo-99 manufacturing processes. These technological innovations are poised to drive the market by mitigating production risks, lowering costs, and enhancing the sustainability of Mo-99 supply chains. As a result, companies investing in advanced radiopharmaceutical technologies are likely to capture substantial market share and contribute to the growth and stability of the global Mo-99 market.

Regional Analysis

North America Dominates the Global Market

Based on region, the global market is bifurcated into North America, Europe, Asia-Pacific, Latin America, and the Middle East and Africa. 

North America is the most significant global market shareholder and is expected to expand substantially during the forecast period. This is owing to its advanced healthcare infrastructure, elevated healthcare spending, and the presence of key market players. The United States, in particular, is a major consumer of Mo-99, driven by the high prevalence of chronic diseases and the extensive use of diagnostic imaging techniques. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), heart disease and cancer are the leading causes of death in the U.S., necessitating frequent use of Tc-99m for early and accurate diagnosis.

The region also benefits from substantial investments in research and development, fostering innovations in Mo-99 production. For instance, NorthStar Medical Radioisotopes, based in Wisconsin, is pioneering non-uranium-based Mo-99 production methods, significantly enhancing the reliability of the Mo-99 supply chain in North America. The U.S. government's support, through agencies like the Department of Energy (DOE), further bolsters the Mo-99 market by funding projects aimed at securing a stable isotope supply.

Moreover, collaborations between healthcare providers and radiopharmaceutical companies are prevalent in North America, ensuring a robust distribution network for Mo-99. The Canadian market also contributes significantly, with facilities like the National Research Universal (NRU) reactor historically being key suppliers of Mo-99. Although the NRU reactor was shut down in 2018, Canada continues to play a role through alternative production methods and cross-border supply agreements. Thus, all these factors are estimated to expedite the North American molybdenum-99 market growth.

The European market for Molybdenum-99 (Mo-99) is poised for significant growth, driven by advanced healthcare infrastructure and increasing demand for nuclear medicine. Europe hosts several leading production facilities, including the High Flux Reactor in the Netherlands and the BR2 reactor in Belgium, which are crucial for ensuring a stable Mo-99 supply. Additionally, the region's stringent regulatory standards and robust nuclear research capabilities further enhance market prospects.

Furthermore, according to the European Association of Nuclear Medicine (EANM), over 10 million diagnostic procedures utilizing Tc-99m are performed annually in Europe. The aging population and rising prevalence of chronic diseases, particularly cardiovascular diseases and cancer, are fueling demand for diagnostic imaging. Moreover, collaborative efforts among European countries to develop non-uranium-based Mo-99 production methods are also contributing to market growth by enhancing supply security and sustainability.

Segmental Analysis

The global market is bifurcated into product type, industry, isotopic application, and end-user.

Based on product type, the market is segmented into production by highly enriched uranium and production by non-highly enriched uranium.

The production by highly enriched uranium segment dominated the market during the forecast period. The HEU method, utilizing highly enriched uranium with a high concentration of U-235, is currently the dominant approach for producing Mo-99 in most reactors. This method is favored due to its superior Mo-99 yield compared to the NHEU method. However, the use of HEU raises significant concerns regarding nuclear proliferation, prompting a push towards adopting the NHEU method. The NHEU method employs low-enriched uranium with a lower U-235 concentration, enhancing security and reducing proliferation risks. Despite these advantages, the NHEU method's lower efficiency and higher costs have hindered its widespread adoption. Efforts to improve the NHEU method continue, aiming to balance safety and efficiency. Transitioning to NHEU remains a priority for enhancing global security while maintaining Mo-99 production levels, although the HEU method's high yield keeps it as the predominant choice in the market.

Based on industry, the market is segmented into medical and scientific research.

The medical segment dominates the global molybdenum-99 (Mo-99) market due to its extensive use in medical imaging techniques for diagnosing conditions like cancer and heart disease. A key driver of market growth is the increasing demand for Mo-99-based imaging methods, particularly in the Asia-Pacific region, which shows promising potential. The market's expansion is also linked to the availability of technetium-99m (99mTc), derived from Mo-99, crucial for medical imaging. Rising health consciousness, heightened awareness, and a growing demand for molybdenum supplements are further propelling the market. Molybdenum supplements are projected to capture a market share of 10% to 15%, contributing significantly to overall growth. The synergy between Mo-99 supply and 99mTc production, alongside increasing consumer health awareness, underscores the market's robust growth trajectory, making the medical segment a critical component of the Mo-99 market.

Based on isotopic application, the market is segmented into SPECT and gamma cameras.

Single Photon Emission Computed Tomography (SPECT) is a crucial application for Molybdenum-99 (Mo-99) in medical imaging. Mo-99 decays to produce Technetium-99m (Tc-99m), the most widely used radioactive tracer in SPECT imaging. Tc-99m emits gamma rays detectable by SPECT cameras, enabling detailed 3D imaging of internal organs and structures. This technique is vital for diagnosing and monitoring various conditions, including cardiovascular diseases, cancers, and bone disorders. The high demand for Tc-99m in SPECT imaging stems from its favorable properties, such as a short half-life of 6 hours and optimal energy emission, which provide clear images with minimal radiation exposure. According to the Society of Nuclear Medicine and Molecular Imaging (SNMMI), approximately 80% of all nuclear medicine procedures use Tc-99m. The surging prevalence of chronic diseases and advancements in nuclear medicine technology are driving the expansion of the Mo-99 market, making SPECT a significant application area.

Based on end-users, the market is segmented into hospitals and diagnostic centers, and research institutes.

Research institutes play a crucial role in the Molybdenum-99 (Mo-99) market, leveraging the isotope for a variety of scientific and medical research purposes. These institutions use Mo-99 primarily in the development and testing of new radiopharmaceuticals, enhancing diagnostic imaging techniques, and conducting clinical trials. The continuous need for innovation in nuclear medicine drives demand within this segment. For example, research facilities often explore novel production methods for Mo-99 to address supply chain vulnerabilities and regulatory challenges associated with traditional reactor-based production.

Institutes like the National Institutes of Health (NIH) and various university-based research centers globally are at the forefront of such initiatives. Their efforts contribute to advancements in early disease detection, personalized medicine, and the overall improvement of healthcare outcomes. The growing investment in medical research, coupled with increasing collaborations between academia and industry, ensures a steady demand for Mo-99 in this segment.

Impact of covid-19

The COVID-19 pandemic has forced governments to close down inter-nation, inter-state, and even inter-city borders to promote social distancing as a measure to stop the spread of the disease. The WHO warns cash and bank cards may also aid disease transmission, and at present, digital payments offer the safest option. Hence, many are opting for online transactions, especially as retailers are refusing hard cash.

The pandemic has redirected authorities’ attention toward the expansion of online payment systems and contactless cards. Countries such as the U.S. and China are planning to promote electronic cash to fight against the spread of the deadly pathogen. Businesses and governments in the regions are significantly investing in digital currency because it cannot be misplaced and is widely accepted by business officials. The robust infrastructure of the U.S. financial market for electronic money facilitated through Visa and MasterCard, and China’s recent announcement of electronic Renminbi (e-RMB) are a couple of the best examples in the current scenario.

• Trade globalization
• Economic globalization
• Military and geostrategic globalization

The below chart represents the historical exchange rate of the U.S. Dollar to the Chinese Yuan.

China’s Digital Currency Market Post-COVID-19

• With PBoC’s support, the digital Yuan will be ‘tokenised’, and e-RMB will grow at a rapid pace, intensely competing with Alipay and WeChat pay
• In Shenzhen, Suzhou, Chengdu, Xiong'an, and certain 2022 Beijing Winter Olympics host cities, the digital money will be tested. Global brands including McDonalds, Starbucks, and Subway will test.
• The country targets a nationwide rollout in two or three years with an aim to reduce the amount of hard cash printing.
• The e-currency will disrupt traditional banking, replacing some part of physical cash owing to the ubiquitous presence of Chinese QR code-based digital wallets.
• Since May 2020, several provinces' civil officials will get half their monthly pay in e-RMB.

Rest of the World (RoW)

• Factors such as declining cash use and the rise of privately owned ‘stablecoins’ has compelled governments across the world to prioritize Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs). The Swiss Financial Market Supervisory Authority (FINMA) confirmed in April that it had received an application for a payment system license from a Geneva-based association governing Facebook’s planned cryptocurrency Libra.
• Regarding CDBCs, both the Bank of England (BoE) in the United Kingdom and the Central Bank of France (Banque de France) are making progress.
• It is anticipated that the growing cryptocurrency investments from South Africa, the Middle East, and Africa would open up new markets for the industry worldwide.

Recent Developments

• January 2024- Chinese researchers have devised a method to produce the medicinal isotope molybdenum-99 (Mo-99) with an electron accelerator system.
• January 2024- The OECD Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA) and Canadian Nuclear Isotope Council (CNIC) have declared their intention to collaborate in order to ensure a supply of medicinal radioisotopes.