The long-term caremarket size was valued at USD 1.20 trillion in 2025 and is projected to grow from USD 1.28 trillion in 2026 to USD 2.12 trillion by 2034, registering a CAGR of 6.52% during the forecast period (2026–2034). North America dominated the long-term care marketwith a share of 47.94% in 2025.
Long-term care refers to a range of medical, personal, and support services designed for individuals who need ongoing assistance with daily activities due to aging, chronic illness, disability, or cognitive impairment. Long-term care services are tracked under SAC Code 999322 (residential care services for the elderly and persons with disabilities) and SIC Code 8051 (skilled nursing care facilities).
The long-term care market demand is driven by the expanding elderly population, rising prevalence of chronic diseases, higher life expectancy, and the preference for home-based care. Advancements in remote monitoring, digital health platforms, care coordination technologies, and personalized care models are also contributing to the long-term care market growth.
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Shift Toward Higher Acuity Senior Housing
Long-term care operators are shifting toward assisted living and memory care as demand continues to rise faster than new supply. This leads providers to focus on property conversions, targeted expansions, and services for residents with higher care needs instead of developing large numbers of new facilities.
Integration of Medicare-Funded Dementia Care Networks
The long-term care market analysis shows that providers are developing structured dementia care networks under Medicare’s GUIDE model to improve support for people living with dementia. These networks combine care coordination, caregiver training, respite services, and partnerships with residential communities. The model also provides a reimbursement pathway for providers delivering dementia care outside traditional institutional settings.
The long-term care market is moderately exposed to supply chain disruptions, particularly through medical equipment, mobility aids, pharmaceuticals, personal protective equipment, nutritional products, and home healthcare supplies. The market is expected to demonstrate an S-shaped recovery, with gradual stabilization followed by faster normalization as supply networks improve, workforce availability strengthens, and procurement conditions become predictable. The market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 6.52%, but supply chain constraints could approximately lower this by 1.5 percentage points, resulting in short-term growth of around 5.02%. As supply chain constraints normalize and providers diversify suppliers, the long-term care market growth is expected to return to 6.52%.
The long-term care market forecasts continued investment activity as healthcare investors, private equity firms, technology companies, and senior care providers focus on expanding home healthcare, assisted living, geriatric care, and technology-enabled care delivery.
Key Investment and Funding Activities in Long-term Care Market, 2025–2026
Age Care Labs
USD 9 million
In July 2026, Age Care Labs raised USD 9 million in Series B1 funding with participation from Shrem Group, Rainmatter by Zerodha, Pegasus Finvest, and family offices.
Teton.ai
USD 20 million
In September 2025, Teton.ai raised USD 20 million in Series A funding led by Plural, with participation from Bertelsmann Investments, Antler Elevate, Nebular, and PSV Tech. The investment is supporting its predictive AI and computer vision technology for senior-care communities and healthcare facilities.
Demand for Medication Management Services and Preference for Value-Based Care Models Drives Market
The demand for medication management services drives the long-term care market, as older adults often require coordinated medication review, monitoring, and adjustment to support appropriate drug use and reduce medication-related risks. CMS requires medication therapy management programs to improve medication use and reduce adverse events, while its long-term care guidance emphasizes medication review, monitoring, and coordination among pharmacists, physicians, caregivers, and facility staff.
The preference for value-based care models leads to focus on care quality, resident outcomes, and avoidable hospitalizations rather than service volume alone. CMS links skilled nursing facility payments to performance on quality measures such as readmissions, healthcare-associated infections, staffing, discharge to community, and falls, encouraging providers to strengthen outcome-focused care delivery.
Limited Clinical Validation and Fragmented Long-term Care Pathways Restrain Market Expansion
Emerging long-term care diagnostic technologies often require extensive clinical validation to demonstrate their accuracy, reliability, and clinical utility across different patient populations and injury conditions. Variations in symptoms, injury severity, age, and recovery patterns can make it difficult to establish consistent performance benchmarks.
Long-term care management is distributed across emergency departments, primary care providers, sports medicine clinics, neurologists, rehabilitation centers, schools, and athletic organizations, with limited coordination between these settings. Differences in referral practices, follow-up procedures, and patient monitoring can result in inconsistent continuity of care.
Expansion of PACE Programs and Development of Home Modification & Community Transition Services Offer Growth Opportunities to Market Players
The expansion of the Program of All-Inclusive Care for the Elderly (PACE) creates opportunities for long-term care providers to offer coordinated medical, personal, rehabilitation, and social services under one care model. Providers can expand into underserved areas, develop new PACE centers, and build partnerships with home-care agencies and community organizations to serve older adults who require nursing-home-level care while continuing to live in their communities. CMS continues to support initial and service-area expansion applications for PACE organizations.
The continued shift from institutional care toward community-based long-term services is creating opportunities for providers offering home modifications, transition support, personal assistance, respite care, and care coordination. Medicaid programs allow states to provide environmental modifications and other support services through HCBS authorities, while the Money Follows the Person program supports transitions from institutional facilities into community settings. This creates opportunities for specialized providers to build service packages supporting safe and independent living at home.
Persistent Workforce Shortages and High Capital Requirements for Facility Upgrades Hinder Growth
Long-term care providers continue to face difficulties recruiting and retaining nurses, certified nursing assistants, personal care workers, and other frontline staff. High turnover, demanding working conditions, wage competition, and limited availability of trained caregivers can reduce facility capacity and restrict the number of patients served. Providers may also need to rely on temporary staffing agencies, increasing operating costs and making workforce planning less predictable across nursing homes, assisted living facilities, and home-care services.
Many long-term care facilities require ongoing investment in building upgrades, safety systems, infection-control infrastructure, accessibility improvements, and specialized equipment for residents with complex care needs. Older properties may require significant renovation to meet changing regulatory and care standards. These capital requirements can place pressure on smaller and independent operators, particularly when operating margins are limited, making it more difficult to modernize facilities, expand capacity, or introduce specialized long-term care services.
The nursing care segment accounted for a share of 31.03% in 2025 due to high utilization among patients requiring continuous clinical supervision and post-acute recovery services. Demand is further strengthened by complex care needs and frequent referrals from hospital discharges.
The hospice segment is expected to grow at a CAGR of around 7.41% during the forecast period, fueled by rising preference for comfort-focused end-of-life care and expanded home hospice services. Growth is further supported by interdisciplinary care models and increasing specialist physician referrals.
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The public segment accounted for a share of 64.19% in 2025, supported by the broad coverage through government-funded long-term care programs. Segment demand is reinforced by aging populations dependent on public healthcare financing programs.
The private segment is expected to grow at a CAGR of 7.62% during the forecast period, propelled by rising uptake of private insurance, self-funded premium care, and employer-sponsored benefits. Growth is also supported by demand for greater provider choice and personalized care packages.
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North America: Market Dominance Led by Established Reimbursement and Post-Acute Care Networks
The North America long-term care market accounted for the largest regional share of 47.94% in 2025, driven by established public reimbursement systems, broad post-acute care networks, and a large base of institutional and home-based providers.
The US long-term care market is shaped by Medicare-funded skilled nursing, Medicaid long-term services and support, and the use of home- and community-based care. Operators are investing in post-acute rehabilitation, clinical staffing, and care transition programs to strengthen referrals from hospitals and health systems.
The Canada long-term care market is supported by provincial healthcare systems, public funding, and policy efforts to improve care quality and workforce stability. Providers are focusing on upgrading facilities, strengthening staffing models, and expanding home and community services to reduce pressure on institutional care. Federal Aging with Dignity agreements include funding for long-term care standards and workforce improvements, while provinces retain responsibility for service delivery and regulation. This structure supports continued investment in nursing homes and community-based programs across Canadian provinces and territories.
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Asia Pacific: Fastest Growth Driven by Community Care Models and Development of Elderly Care Institutions
The Asia Pacific long-term care market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 8.14% during the forecast period, showcasing the fastest regional growth. Policy development in China, Japan, and India is encouraging broader service availability and creating opportunities for operators.
The China long-term care market benefits from the development of elderly care institutions, community services, and home-based support under national ageing policies. Providers are increasingly combining residential care with nursing, rehabilitation, meal support, and community services to address different levels of dependency.
The India long-term care market is led by organized senior housing, continuous care homes, mobile medical services, and government-supported institutional care. Demand is encouraging providers to offer combinations of accommodation, nursing assistance, physiotherapy, and age friendly services. Government initiatives under the Atal Vayo Abhyudaya Yojana support Senior Citizen Homes and Continuous Care Homes. Model guidelines also seek stronger regulations of retirement homes. These measures improve the care framework and support expansion by organized long-term care providers.
The Japan long-term care market is driven by its established long-term care insurance system and community-based integrated care framework. Service providers are increasingly coordinating housing and medical care within local communities so older adults can remain near their homes. Japan is also addressing caregiver availability through workflow redesign, care technology, and productivity measures as the working age population declines. These conditions support demand for technology assisted care delivery across the country.
Europe: Market Expansion Supported by Structured Social Care Financing and Flexible Care Delivery
The Europe long-term care market is estimated to grow at a CAGR of 6.79% during the forecast period, supported by established social protection systems, regulated care providers, and policy focus on maintaining care continuity across residential and home settings.
The UK long-term care market is supported by government measures to strengthen the adult social-care workforce and improve service capacity. The UK government expanded the Care Workforce Pathway to cover nearly all unregulated adult social care roles and backed the also provides up to USD 10 million for workforce training and qualifications, supporting the development of skilled personnel across home care, residential care, and other long-term care settings.
The Germany long-term care market is supported by reforms aimed at expanding care capacity and improving the delivery of services. From January 2026, professional caregivers gained broader authority to perform certain medical tasks independently within defined frameworks, while the government is simplifying applications for long-term care benefits and extending pilot projects for home and community-based care through 2029. Germany is also preparing standardized nationwide training for care assistants from 2027, supporting workforce development across outpatient, residential, and community-based long-term care services.
Latin America: Market Development Supported by Formalization of Elderly Care Services and Establishment of Clearer Service Structures
The Latin America long-term care market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 7.04% during the forecast period, as countries strengthen formal elderly care policies alongside family-based caregiving traditions. The National Care Plan in Brazil identifies older people requiring assistance with daily living as a priority group and promotes services such as home care and day centers, supporting the development of community-based and home-based long-term care services. The National System for Integral Family Development in Mexico also provides residential and day care services for older adults, including geriatric, medical, psychological, social, and rehabilitation services, supporting the development of home-based, community, and residential long-term care services.
Middle East & Africa: Market Development Supported by Development of Care Infrastructure and Social Support Programs
The Middle East & Africa long-term care market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 7.15% during the forecast period. The UAE’s National Policy for Senior Emiratis promotes an integrated care system covering healthcare, social support, safety, and quality of life, while the federal government recognizes home care, permanent care facilities, rehabilitation units, and mobile services as part of the support system for older adults. South Africa’s Social Development budget tracks the number of older people accessing community-based care and support services and residential facilities, with a first-quarter target of 4,557 people for community-based services. The government also requires community-based care providers and caregivers, supporting the development of organized homes, community, and residential long-term care services.
The long-term care market competitive landscape is highly fragmented, comprising nursing home operators, assisted living providers, home healthcare companies, hospice providers, rehabilitation centers, and senior care technology companies. Key players such as Brookdale Senior Living, Sunrise Senior Living, Atria Senior Living, Extendicare, and Sonida Senior Living are estimated to account for over 30% of the long-term care market share.
Established players in the long-term care market ecosystem compete primarily on service quality, geographic coverage, facility capacity, and staffing capabilities. Emerging and regional players compete through personalized care plans, home-based care services, community-based support, and flexible care models.
July 2026: HCC Healthcare signed a business combination agreement with RF Acquisition Corp III to pursue a Nasdaq listing, supporting expansion of its integrated medical and long-term care network in Taiwan.
May 2026: EVA Live entered into a strategic partnership agreement with Spiro Senior Care, proposing up to USD 20 million of investment to deploy AI-enabled healthcare infrastructure across senior living communities.
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Author's Details
Healthcare Lead
Debashree Bora is a strategic healthcare research professional with nearly eight years of hands on experience in market intelligence, encompassing primary research, secondary research, market estimation, and consulting engagements. She specializes in pharmaceutical, biotechnology, medical devices, healthcare services, clinical trials, and healthcare outsourcing sectors, providing actionable insights on evolving industry trends, regulatory landscapes, competitive dynamics, and market opportunities. Debashree’s research helps global clients evaluate market potential, identify growth opportunities, strengthen commercial strategies, and make informed business decisions.
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