Out-of-Home Coffee Market

Market Overview

The global out-of-home coffee market size was valued at USD 1.71 billion in 2022. It is projected to reach USD 2.26 billion by 2031, growing at a CAGR of 3.14% during the forecast period (2023-2031). 

Worldwide sales of coffee through the HRI (Hotels, Restaurants, and Institutions) sector are referred to as the "out-of-home coffee market." Online coffee ordering by many customers has led to an increase in at-home coffee consumption. In contrast, purchasing ready-to-drink coffee has significantly reduced out-of-home coffee consumption. With everything returning to normal, consumers are embracing out-of-home coffee more frequently. Market participants are introducing novel coffee pods, available coffee, premiumization, and marketing of essential coffee brands into their company operations to solidify their market positions.

Market Dynamics

Global Out-of-Home Coffee Market Drivers

Increasing Number of Working Age Population 

The main reasons influencing the rise of coffee chain expansion, particularly in the Asia-Pacific area, are projected to increase global exposure, western culture, and penetration of existing coffee brands. Coffee shops have grown significantly recently as they have become more popular hangout spots for friends, family, coworkers, and business associates. The growth of the market has been fueled in part by the advent of high-end stores from businesses like Coffee Day Enterprises Ltd, Starbucks Corporation, and Barista Coffee Co Ltd, among others. Additionally, these establishments have introduced a new experiential element to coffee consumption by fostering a pleasing and soothing environment. 

Additionally, as these establishments provide amenities like free Wi-Fi, entertainment zones, etc., changing work habits of corporate leaders are also increasing demand for these coffee shops and cafes. The popularity of coffee consumption, particularly among urban dwellers, is also increasing in the European region, reinforcing the average growth rate of cafés and bars regarding value sales and transactions. On the other side, the United States has a developed coffee market, and the country's rising working-age population contributes to market expansion. The country's out-of-home coffee consumption culture is growing, as shown by the statistics, which points to potential market growth throughout the forecast period. As a result, coffee shops have become symbols of metropolitan neighborhoods. They generate a lot of pedestrian activity and vibrant streetscapes thanks to their high customer traffic and strong profit margins.

Global Out-of-Home Coffee Market Restraint

Erratic Climatic Conditions and Global Warming

Rich soils, cool to warm tropical climates, and a lack of pests or diseases are all ideal for growing coffee. The coffee belt stretches along the equator, with production occurring throughout North, Central, and South America, the Caribbean, Africa, the Middle East, and Asia. Brazil is currently the nation that produces the most coffee in the world. Suppose Earth's temperature continues to warm over the ensuing decades. In that case, barriers to coffee cultivation will grow and could have a detrimental effect on the quality and amount of coffee produced, which could hurt sales of coffee consumed outside the home—the coffee plant's fruit development and ripening speed up over the mild temperature range. 

Although quicker ripening may not be detrimental to agriculture, it eventually lowers the caliber of the coffee beans. With shading techniques, more durable bean varieties, and more organic biological pest control, CIAT and World Coffee Research are attempting to reduce the amount of land lost. Businesses launched the Sustainable Coffee Challenge like Starbucks, with over 100 partners dedicated to more intelligent production. In Brazil, coffee was planted in this area between 2010 and 2018. Coffee was grown on over 1.86 million hectares in 2018, down from 1.95 million hectares the year before. Notably, due to climatic changes and unfavorable soil conditions, the number of coffee plantation acres in Brazil has been steadily declining.

Global Out-of-Home Coffee Market Opportunities

Consumer Preference for Premium Coffee 

The market for premium coffees has proliferated, partly thanks to the steady increase in consumption outside the home. Cities in Europe and North America are setting the pace for introducing sophisticated, high-value varieties to consumers, considerably boosting the market growth. Additionally, there is a growing consumer interest in how coffee is brewed and how the crop is farmed, which is in line with the rising demand for premium coffee. As a result, it has become crucial for manufacturers of specialty coffee to explain the history of their products, including their origin and other environmental and social factors. 

The premiumization of coffee has become increasingly important in the US in recent years. As earnings improved over the past ten years, consumers learned about value-added coffee services at coffee shops. They carried this newfound appreciation for high-quality coffee into other food service and retail settings. A workable solution to the growing environmental problems is introducing a bio-compostable material (PLA) to produce compostable coffee capsules. Thus, these novels, organic, and specialty coffees will boost premium coffee and coffee pod sales during the projected period.

Regional Analysis

The global out-of-home coffee market is divided into four regions: North America, Europe, Asia-Pacific, and LAMEA. 

Europe Dominates the Global Market

Europe is the most significant revenue contributor and is expected to grow at a CAGR of 2.98% during the forecast period. Nearly 50% of customers in Spain drink coffee and its variations. The Centre for Sociological Investigation (CIS) claims that people prefer hanging out in parks, marketplaces, bars, and restaurants. Spain, which has the third-largest number of cafés and bars in the world, after Brazil and Japan, is one of the countries with one of the most lively café cultures in the world, boosting the demand for out-of-home coffee consumption. As a result, the market is seeing an increase in players. For instance, Tim Hortons entered Spain in late 2017 and has 15 high-end coffee shops alone. The company also plans to enter other markets by opening more cafés. 

Furthermore, the British Coffee Association estimates that 95 million cups of coffee are consumed daily in the United Kingdom. According to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, 32% of those cups are consumed outside the home, with fresh coffee accounting for 77.88% of that consumption in 2018. In addition, coffee sales in the UK are primarily based on outside-the-home consumption, which is a significant factor in the rising popularity of specialty coffees. In the UK, 15% of coffee consumed outside the home is specialty rated. This, along with more significant tendencies toward artisan experiences purchased "on trade," is fostering the growth of independent specialty businesses.

North America is expected to grow at a CAGR of 2.74% during the forecast period. Despite being one of the most popular drinks eaten nationwide and the world's largest user of coffee, the United States produces very little of the bean. For instance: The total amount of coffee made in Vietnam and Peru is imported into the United States in about equal amounts. The nation's consumers consume a lot of coffee, which has increased imports of the goods. Due to this, the United States is now the world's second-largest importer of coffee beans. Numerous coffee chains in the United States are becoming more well-liked among customers who want their coffee on the go due to increasingly hectic lifestyles and extended working hours.

Additionally, the flexibility provided by cafes like Caffe Reggio, from hosting formal meetings to offering alcohol and non-alcohol over a variety of cuisines, has significantly increased the demand for coffee consumed outside of the home in the nation. In the US, Starbucks led the on-trade sales of single-serve coffee. Starbucks dominates the market with 31,256 locations worldwide as of 2019, nearly doubling over the previous ten years. The Coffee Association of Canada (CAC) reports that most Canadians prefer coffee to tea and are more interested in high-quality coffee. This is the primary driver of the nation's coffee market. As a result, businesses are venturing out to open cafes in the target markets as part of strategic expansion. Canadians strongly prefer making coffee at home instead of having it made elsewhere. Most people drink coffee at home, whereas a cup of coffee with breakfast is essential to the day for Canadians. Additionally, the current pandemic considerably influences the sales of coffee consumed outside the home, which could temporarily hinder market growth.

In Mainland China, coffee has assimilated into the culture. Coffee has established itself as a hip, Western luxury among Chinese customers, with coffee shops lining the busy streets of cities like Beijing and Shanghai. The leading coffee shops have much to gain from China's shift in preferences, which can be attributed to millennial consumption habits. According to Coffee Business Intelligence, the nation's consumption of coffee increased by nearly 20% in 2018, which was 2% more than the global growth rate. A few cultural shifts occurred in Japan's coffee consumption habits, including selling coffee as a quick pick-me-up beverage. Stores are progressively adjusting their offerings to meet the needs of an active lifestyle. 

Furthermore, these modifications are currently discernible in the mainstream market. For instance, the Japanese café Gacha uses capsule vending machines to offer a concept of coffee in which the flavors are random. Starbucks provides Halloween-themed drinks like the Masquerade Raspberry Mocha. The leading market players in the area strongly emphasize product innovation as a vital strategy to advance the Japanese coffee market. Indian coffee retail chains experience rapid expansion as their locations become popular hangout spots for customers. The growth of the coffee market is linked to the advent of high-end shops from businesses like Cafe Coffee Day Enterprises Ltd, Starbucks Corporation, and Barista Coffee Co Ltd, among others.

LAMEA is expected to grow steadily over the forecast period. Nearly 97% of the population in Brazil over the age of 15 drinks coffee, making it the second most popular beverage behind water. Brazil's out-of-home industry is driven by the rising desire for people to spend time with their families and friends in natural settings. Brazilian coffee is distinctive due to the highly usual dark roast processing, which gives the coffee a mellow flavor. Bourbon Santos Coffee and Catuai Coffee dominate the market for coffee consumed outside of the home. An average of one cup of coffee is consumed every other day in Argentina, where a pound of coffee is used annually per person. Argentina's market is distinct and attractive, with room for new entrants to engage in ongoing product development. Specialty coffee and coffee of better quality exhibit a growing tendency over the analyzed period. Improved coffee product variants, which account for most coffee consumption in Argentina, should be the focus of companies entering the out-of-home coffee industry.

Segmental Analysis

The global out-of-home coffee market is segmented by type.

Based on type, the global out-of-home coffee market is bifurcated into roasted coffee, instant/soluble coffee, and portioned coffee. 

The roasted coffee segment is the highest contributor to the market and is estimated to grow at a CAGR of 3.34% during the forecast period. One of the critical reasons propelling the expansion of the roasted bean coffee segment is the increasing demand for roasted coffee in hotels, restaurants, and office cafeterias. 68% of respondents to a survey by the Institute for Scientific Information on Coffee (ISIC) said they frequently drank coffee while working. Due to rising consumer awareness of coffee quality, there is a significant demand for coffee in European nations, including Germany, Italy, France, and the Netherlands. 

Additionally, technological developments (such as tabletop devices and traceability tools) pave the way for bean-to-cup solutions. Starbucks expanded its digital traceability platform for tracing the origin of coffee beans by launching Traceability.Starbucks.Com in its locations across the United States at the beginning of 2020. This was accomplished in collaboration with Microsoft's Azure blockchain platform. Manufacturers are also attempting to premium their products in response to consumer demand, and some established businesses are diversifying their product portfolios within this market. To help baristas unlock and streamline the art of roasting in the store, Nestlé announced the release of Roastelier, a portable coffee-roasting solution. A selection of arabica coffees from carefully chosen coffee-growing regions worldwide as part of the Roastelier solution. In Nestlé's plants, these coffees are evaluated for a variety of quality criteria. They are then put through the initial stage of roasting utilizing their specialized expertise and set-up of equipment, known as "Prime Roast," to assure consistently good results batch after batch.

The instant coffee market is mainly driven by convenience because it is so simple. Most consumers live a fast-paced lifestyle, which benefits the demand for quick meals. Amateur coffee drinkers are persuaded to choose instant coffee by the rising demand for healthier beverages. Due to their busy lifestyles, working-class individuals, teenagers, residents of hostels, and bachelors are especially fond of on-the-go eating. Additionally, ready-to-drink coffee allows for convenient handling and consuming products strongly related to on-the-go beverages. As a result, the demand for instant coffee is rising due to the associated convenience of consumption, helped by disposable packaging that keeps hands away from the coffee and keeps them clean for work simultaneously. 

Global juggernauts like Coca-Cola and Nestlé are attempting to get into this up-and-coming market by launching products, especially in canned packaging, and acquiring regional/local players in response to the consumer's driving demand. Additionally, cafés and coffee shops keep an eye on this instant coffee market because customers are willing to pay more for a high-end caffeinated beverage. By releasing RTD beverages under their names, coffee roaster firms attempt to break into this lucrative global industry.

Recent Developments

• February 2022- Nestlé SA, the world’s largest packaged-food maker, said its coffee business was the most significant contributor to organic sales growth last year, boosted by demand from consumers continuing to work from home.
• August 2022- The J.M. Smucker Co. used science and technology to push the coffee industry forward. Leveraging analytical capabilities to create new formulations for consumers is a key area of focus for the company’s USD 2.5 billion coffee business.