Melting Arctic Ice Brings New Opportunities for Cruise and Shipping Industries

The Arctic ice is melting at an alarming rate, primarily due to climate change driven by human activities that emit greenhouse gases. This major shift has an impact on global navigation and the climate, creating new trade routes and serious environmental risks.

Ice loss and economic impact

The oldest and thickest ice in the Arctic has decreased by an astounding 95% in the last 30 years, and the region is losing sea ice at a rate of around 13% per decade. Nearly about 7.6 trillion tonnes of the almost 28 trillion tonnes of ice lost by the planet from 1994 to 2017 came from Arctic sea ice. The amount of ice lost every year since the 1990s has surged by 57% due to changes in the ocean current system, wind patterns, and global warming.

When the thickness of the ice covering seawater diminishes to a great extent, the thickness of water and air in the ocean gets to absorb carbon dioxide in larger quantities, which escalates the rate of global warming. There is little hope for the Arctic Oceans as climate data suggests that regions that were once dominantly covered in ice may not have ice for long periods within the next two decades. A lot of living species whose lives require temperatures below zero degrees are under threat as a result of global warming and climate change.

Although melting ice poses serious environmental problems, it also creates new navigational opportunities. The cruise and shipping businesses are now taking advantage of shorter routes across the Arctic. The new routes, in addition to reducing travel times and fuel costs, can facilitate access to areas that were previously out of reach and have a high potential for resource extraction. However, there are significant environmental risks associated with this increase, including pollution and the disturbance of fragile Arctic habitats.

From 2013 to 2023, the distance sailed by ships in the Arctic Polar Code Area steadily increased. In 2013, ships covered 6.1 million nautical miles, growing to a record 12.9 million miles by 2023. The Northwest Passage saw a 44% rise in unique ships entering between 2013 and 2019, while the Northeast Passage's navigation season for open-water vessels increased from sporadic access in the 1980s to an average of 92 days in the 2010s.

In 2022, the Northern Sea Route (NSR) is said to have recorded the most traffic, with 2,994 voyages, most of which were done during the months of August and September, when ice thickness is at its lowest. Because the NSR is around 40% shorter than the Suez Canal, this route offers significant savings. Depending on the route and type of vessel, it can save anywhere from 10 to 14 days of travel time.

Rise of Arctic Tourism

In addition to commercial shipping, there has been a notable surge in Arctic cruise tourism. Research shows that the number of ships visiting the Arctic Polar Code region increased by 37% between 2013 and 2023. About 32,356 travellers travelled to Arctic regions in 2019, with Svalbard serving as the main destination. The economic contribution from cruise tourism in Svalbard in 2018 was estimated at 110 million NOK (around USD 12 million), driven mainly by expedition cruises that accounted for two-thirds of the passenger total.

Such forms of tourism have also had a fairly considerable environmental effect, which has almost practically increased four times in a decade's span. Such noticeable trends can be observed in the period from 2006 to 2016 when the summer tourism footprint went up by 374% while the winter one rose by more than 634%. Of great concern is the level of pollution and the effects on fragile ecosystems due to the increasing number of visitors.

It is anticipated that trans-Arctic routes will become much more navigable as the Arctic warms further. Russia may lose control of Arctic trade by 2065 if new trade routes are developed in the region that lessen the carbon footprint of the maritime sector. Improved navigability enables commercial ships to transport approximately 33% to 66% more goods from East Asia to Europe during the Arctic shipping season than through traditional routes like the Suez Canal.

There are risks and opportunities associated with the melting Arctic. Although new shipping routes can facilitate travel and strengthen the economy, they also pose significant environmental risks. As we adjust to these changes, it's essential to maintain a balance between environmental preservation and economic growth to ensure a sustainable future for the Arctic.