Advanced Missile Defense System Market

Market Overview

The Total Addressable Market (TAM) for advanced missile defense system was valued at USD 22.29 billion in 2022. It is estimated to reach USD 27.06 billion by 2031, growing at a CAGR of 2.18% during the forecast period (2023–2031).

The original purpose of missile defense systems was to thwart nuclear-tipped ballistic missiles. However, more recently, greater emphasis has been placed on defending against other types of missiles, such as cruise, supersonic and hypersonic missiles. An advanced missile defense system is also used against the attack of combat aircraft, helicopters, bombers, Unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), and stand-off weapons. Missile defense systems are designed to counter aerial threats for varied distances from short, extended, medium, and long-range threats.

Missile defense systems are essential to a country's plan to protect itself from dangerous weapons. Many developed and developing countries have deployed advanced missile defense systems to counter aerial threats. The U.S., the U.K., France, Italy, Israel, Russia, China, Taiwan, India, Japan, South Korea, Saudi Arabia, and the U.A.E. are defending their airspace using missile defense systems.

Market Dynamics

Market Drivers

Growing Regional Threat Protection

Growing regional threat protection contributes to the market demand for advanced missile defense systems. The countries with strong military power are invading the countries with weak military force, fundamentally reordering regional politics and defense approaches. The improving economic conditions of emerging economies, as well as the rising cross-border infiltration, terrorism, and geopolitical instability, led to the demand for air defense systems to safeguard a nation from aerial threats.

In addition, many emerging countries, such as India, South Korea, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey, are looking to implement a layered approach to air and missile defense systems to counter aerial threats from hostile nations and terrorist outfits. As global tension and instability rise, many emerging countries could increase their defense spending by implementing missile defense systems. Consequently, it allows defense companies to supply air defense capabilities to these nations.

Ongoing Armed Conflicts

Ongoing armed conflicts drive the need for enhanced military deterrence, increasing market demand for advanced missile defense systems. The use of regular barrages of rockets in the war has increased the demand for advanced missile defense systems. For instance, in April 2022, Lockheed Martin Corporation reported growing global demand for THAAD and PAC-3. Changing geopolitical situations, military interventions, and outbreaks of new conflicts give rise to a need for advanced and sophisticated missile defense systems for handling critical cases.

Geopolitical conditions and the nature of warfare have made many countries devise various strategies to prepare their air defense systems for security challenges. Moreover, new defense policies in Asia-Pacific and North America focus on modernizing their defense forces, including air defense systems through the deployment of missile defense systems, air defense radars, and anti-aircraft systems, among others. The U.S. military is helping the countries of Asia-Pacific rebalance their defense forces and economic resources, which can primarily strengthen the partnership and alliance of both regions.

Market Restraint

Stringent Industry Regulations Related to Arms Transfer

Stringent industry regulations regarding arms transfer hinder the market demand for the advanced missile defense systems industry. The sale and procurement of all missile defense systems globally are regulated by heavy oversight from central defense agencies such as the Department of Defense (DoD, U.S.), the Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO, India), and European Unions’ EUCOMM. Terms of sales, production, and delivery to the international market are negotiated via foreign military sales contracts. The agencies also oversee the extent of technology transfer in these dealings, and the purchase of top-end systems is often restricted until the strategic advantages even out.

In addition, treaties, non-proliferation agreements, and technology transfer embargos by U.N. member nations further supplement these restrictions. Although these restrictions are intended to prevent theft and infringement of sensitive technologies, the effect on the market players and the overall market size is also palpable. The CAATSA sanctions on Turkey for purchasing the S400 systems are a case in point where the procurement of foreign defense equipment by NATO members is a controlled and often prohibited practice. Such regulatory frameworks often need to be more sensitive to regional security issues of sovereign nations and their missile defense strategies.

Market Opportunities

Increasing Number of Hypersonic and Supersonic Missiles

The increase in demand for defensive capabilities follows a rise in offensive strike capability in a near-lockstep fashion. China and Russia took the lead in developing cruise missiles and hypersonic glide vehicles in 2021. The successful demonstration of these offensive capabilities leads to a subsequent rise in demand for advanced missile defense systems manufacturers from major defense clients worldwide. For instance, Almaz-Antey secured multiple production contracts for its S400 missile defense system to India, Turkey, Iran, and China during 2020–2022, snatching up a sizable portion of the global market.

Additionally, supersonic and hypersonic missile production rates have increased in recent years, complementing the maturation of striking weapon systems. Most sovereign defense forces are adopting the strategy of deploying several missiles at a single strategic target to increase the chances of elimination, as such missile systems that can deal with multiple incoming targets like the Iron Dome are in high demand, creating opportunities for the market to grow.

Regional Analysis

By region, the global clinical trials software is divided into North America, Europe, Asia-Pacific, and the Middle East.

North America Dominates the Global Market

North America is the most significant shareholder in the global clinical trials software market and is anticipated to grow at a CAGR of 2.19% during the forecast period. North America region comprises the regional markets of the U.S. The region accounts for most of the advanced missile defense systems companies and innovations in the global advanced missile defense system market. This is also supported by the United States' enormous defense spending. In addition, the U.S.-based advanced missile defense systems manufacturers are significant players in domestic and international missile defense markets, with advanced systems like THAAD, Aegis Ashore, and Patriot Systems deployed around the globe in friendly nations. Most domestic contracts for manufacturing and developing these systems are awarded by the U.S. Missile Defense Agency (M.D.A.). The M.D.A. is also responsible for competitive assessments and critical design reviews during the initial conceptual phase of developing entirely new systems like the Next Generation Interceptor (N.G.I.).

Asia-Pacific is estimated to grow at a CAGR of 2.18% over the forecast period. Asia-Pacific countries such as India, China, Japan, Taiwan, and South Korea are important markets with effective missile defense programs and manufacturing capabilities. Missile defense programs have gained significant importance in the region due to the development of advanced hypersonic strike weapon capabilities by countries like China and ongoing developments in India. Most regional prime missile defense manufacturers are government-owned entities relying on contracts from central agencies to fund the R&D and production costs. These defense manufacturers have developed advanced indigenous capabilities such as exo-atmospheric interceptors, phased array radars, and command and control systems to protect against ballistic missiles and certain cruise missiles.

In the Europe region, Italy, France, the U.K., and Russia are the leading countries with missile defense products in the market. The region's core defense against ballistic missile threats is the NATO Ballistic Missile Defense (BMD) system, supported by the European Phased Adaptive Approach (EPAA). In accordance with EPAA, American Aegis Ashore systems have been placed in Romania, Aegis BMD-capable ships in Spain, a radar system in Turkey, and command and control (C2) facilities in Germany. In addition, Poland is expected to host an Aegis Ashore system soon, and collaborative efforts for its integration by the U.S. defense contractors like Lockheed Martin and the P.G.Z. Major missile defense manufacturers in the region are MBDA, B.A.E. Systems, Saab S.A., and Thales Group. In the present scenario of growing global conflict, the funding of missile defense systems by European nations has increased, both at the E.U. level and individual country level.

Middle East countries such as Saudi Arabia, the U.A.E., and Israel are currently the significant markets for advanced missile defense systems in the region. In the Middle East, Saudi Arabia had the highest defense budget of around USD 53,759.0 billion in 2021 and was one of the biggest importers of weapons. Due to rising conflicts, Middle Eastern countries are focusing more on deploying air defense systems. Saudi Arabia is also considering building medium-range air defense systems after the attack on its oil production complex to safeguard its vital resources. Israel and Turkey have the edge over other middle eastern countries in developing indigenous air defense systems. For instance, Turkey successfully tested the HISAR-O medium-range missile defense system.

Segmental Analysis

The global advanced missile defense system market is segmented by application, component, platform, range, and speed regime.

By application, the global advanced missile defense system market is divided into detection, tracking and identification, interception, and integrated missile defense management.

The integrated missile defense management segment is the highest contributor to the market and is anticipated to grow at a CAGR of 2.08% over the forecast period. The priority in managing missile defense systems is centralized command and control of all deployed systems means taking care of surveillance and threat data, tracking and acquiring targets of threats, and figuring out possible ways to respond in battle. Current techniques like the Integrated Air and Missile Defense Battle Command Systems (IBCS) and the C2BMC can provide a single integrated view of the threat to ground command stations, relaying target capture data to the missile fire and control units as well as optimizing the response from the distributed missile defense assets.

Missile interception scenarios involve ground-based and naval-based interception systems as stand-alone weapons batteries and multi-tiered defense systems with a broad spectrum of interceptors. The NATO BMD system, functioning as Europe's primary defense against ballistic missiles, comprises a sea-based Aegis fleet and the Aegis Ashore system. In addition, THAAD and Patriot batteries are also deployed on the forward bases in member nations Germany and Poland.

By component, the global advanced missile defense system market is segmented into sensing, engagement, and command and control.

The command and control segment owns the highest market share and is expected to grow at a CAGR of 2.08% for the forecast period. The command and control segment is further subdivided into hardware, software, integration, analytics, and delivery. The hardware interface comprises secure data terminals situated in ground control stations and data filtering and processing hardware. Software and associated applications and drivers traditionally provided user interfaces to the C2 command centers, with each missile defense system typically having its proprietary OS installed by competing companies. In addition, integrated systems use network bridges to connect themselves and missile defense system elements. Analytics and delivery form the core of the decision-making process in missile defense missions, providing the commanding officers and analysts with an advanced perception of the potential threats.

Sensors and radar equipment form a highly competitive market, given their evolving role as the eyes and ears of missile defense systems. They are deployed across all platforms and in considerably large numbers for redundancy. Current developments in radar and sensing technology focus on the scalability of sensors with a focus on the range of tracking and detection, improved performance in jamming and high-noise environments, development of lightweight, low-power systems, hardened networks for integrated performance, and advanced space-based sensors to counter-hypersonic threats.

By platform, the global advanced missile defense system is segmented into land, air, sea, and space.

The land segment owns the highest market share and is anticipated to grow at a CAGR of 2.01% throughout the forecast period. Land-based elements of missile defense systems include interceptors, radars, land-based sensors, launchers, command stations, and networks. This segment has the broadest offering of missile defense products in the market. It is critical to missile defense strategy because it includes command and control (C2) and interceptor systems. The segment has seen continuous growth and significant technological development over the timeline of missile defense segments, with the other three domains usually augmenting the capabilities on land.

Land and sea-based radars and sensors benefit from the specific blind spots and threat identification that air-based missile defense elements provide. In short-range defense, airborne systems can often deploy countermeasures like jamming and flares as part of the multi-layered defense. Airborne sensors communicate with land- and sea-based systems to provide threat data and incoming missile warnings. Space systems used in conjunction with airborne sensors can zero in on threats identified by the former to give a better picture of low-altitude cruise missile threats.

By range, the global advanced missile defense system market is segmented into short-range, medium-range, and long-range.

The short-range segment is the highest contributor to the market and is expected to grow at a CAGR of 2.03% during the forecast period. Short-range missile defense systems are those systems that destroy the low-altitude aerial target at a range between 2 km to 6 km. Advanced missile defense system guns used in air defense, very short-range missile defense systems, and laser weapons come under the short-range air defense system, mainly deployed on the frontline of the war zone. These are multi-platform systems integrated with infantry fighting vehicles, trucks, ships, and aircraft. HISAR-A Low Altitude Air Defense Missile System, Bofors 40 Mk4 Naval Gun, BIHO II ADS, ASPIDE 2000, and MISTRAL MANPADS are the type of short-range air defense systems.

The medium-range missile defense systems range from 61km to 500km. The medium-range air defense system is the most critical part of the air defense strategy of any nation to safeguard from external threats. Norwegian Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile System (NASAMS), Principal Anti-Air Missile System (PAAMS), Advanced Air Defence (AAD), Arrow- 1, Arrow- 2, A- 135 anti-ballistic missile system, S-300, and Aegis Ballistic Missile Defense Systems are different types of medium-range air defense systems.

By speed regime, the global advanced missile defense system market is segmented into subsonic, supersonic, and hypersonic.

The hypersonic segment owns the highest market share and is expected to grow at a CAGR of 2.06% for the forecast period. Most ICBMs and theatre ballistic missiles fall in the hypersonic category with speeds up to Mach 20. These are considered serious threats as they are usually the delivery mechanisms of nuclear warheads. Several nations have historically sanctioned the sale of enabling technologies of such missiles to non-nuclear countries. Cruise missiles like the Kinzhal, DF-17, and Avangarde have recently caught the attention of both manufacturers of strike weapons and missile defenses.

Subsonic strike weapons are generally cruise missiles and anti-ship weapons that utilize terrains and low altitudes to approach targets undetected. Airborne sensors are the most successful at detecting and tracking such targets, next to 24-hour surveillance radars. Their range can vary greatly depending on the mission and are usually powered by very low-noise turbojets to avoid detection from heat seekers. Missiles like the U.S. Tomahawk and India's Nirbhay are examples of such weapons, with the former having a range of up to 1,500 km with speeds of around 0.72 Mach.

Recent Developments

• December 2022- BAE Systems PLC signed a non-binding Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with the Czech Republic and Sweden, which provides a framework for negotiating an agreement to deliver CV90 combat vehicles to the Armed Forces of the Czech Republic.
• December2022-BAE SystemsPLC agreed with Sweden, Germany, and the United Kingdom to purchase 436 BvS10 all-terrain vehicles. The USD 760 million joint purchase will help the Collaborative All-Terrain Vehicle (CATV) program do its work in the Arctic.