The global ammonia market size was valued at USD 160.14 billion in 2024 and is projected to grow from USD 171.66 billion in 2025 to USD 308.71 billion by 2033, exhibiting a CAGR of 7.6% during the forecast period (2025-2033).
Ammonia plays a crucial role in agriculture as a key component of nitrogen-based fertilizers, essential for enhancing crop yields and the global food processing industry. Ammonia is also used in producing AdBlue for vehicle NOx control and in the pharmaceutical, textile, and explosives industries. According to gross estimations, approximately 2/3 of consumed natural gas is used as a feedstock, while around 1/3 is used for energy purposes. Natural gas is the key cost driver for the ammonia industry in Europe, making up approximately 70-85% of the production costs.
Although ammonia is not a greenhouse gas, following deposition to soil, it may be converted to nitrous oxide, an important contributor to the radiative forcing of climate. It converts nitrogen from the air into ammonia using hydrogen derived from natural gas or other fossil fuels. As concerns regarding climate change and greenhouse gas emissions escalate, there is growing interest in exploring sustainable production methods such as green and blue ammonia, which utilize renewable energy sources or capture and store carbon emissions.
Asia Pacific is anticipated to continue its dominance over the forecast period due to growing foreign investments in the developing economies of China and India. In addition, as per Ammonia Energy Association, China is the largest ammonia producer globally, and the country accounts for almost 32% of total global demand. Ammonia is produced from fossil gas in most countries, but this is not abundant in China. Thus, about 85% of China’s annual ammonia production is based on coal. The carbon intensity of coal-based ammonia production is substantial, with at least 3.5-4.5 tons of CO2 equivalents emitted per ton ammonia.
Table 1: Global Ammonia Production by Region, 2020-2024 (Kilotons)
| By Region | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| North America | 20,683.0 | 19,729.8 | 21,105.2 | 20,766.8 | 21,864.9 |
| Europe | 15,172.1 | 14,382.2 | 10,789.2 | 11,157.1 | 12,523.1 |
| Asia Pacific | 15,324.0 | 16,013.3 | 13,262.3 | 13,847.0 | 14,213.6 |
| LATIN AMERICA | 1,09,159.7 | 1,13,271.1 | 1,18,914.4 | 1,21,749.9 | 1,23,108.3 |
| MEA | 6,083.2 | 6,442.9 | 6,988.0 | 6,862.0 | 6,988.0 |
| CIS | 8,879.1 | 10,194.9 | 10,955.5 | 11,636.2 | 12,044.0 |
| Total | 1,75,301.1 | 1,80,034.3 | 1,82,014.6 | 1,86,019.0 | 1,90,742.0 |
Source: Straits Research, International Fertilizer Association, Ammonia Energy Association
As per U.S. Department of Energy, the Industrial Decarbonization Roadmap focuses on five of the highest CO2-emitting industries (petroleum refining, chemicals, iron and steel, cement, and food and beverage) where industrial decarbonization technologies can have the greatest impact across the nation. These industries represent approximately 51% of energy-related CO2 emissions in the U.S. industrial sector and 15% of U.S. economywide total CO2 emissions.
New applications of ammonia are being explored, including renewable ammonia as a hydrogen carrier for long-range transport. As per International Renewable Energy Agency, the main market growth is expected from the maritime sector, followed by the application of ammonia as a hydrogen carrier, representing a demand of 127 Mt by 2050.
By scaling up and commercially developing ammonia cracking plants, manufacturers can enable the establishment of global value chains for green hydrogen to use ammonia optimally as an energy carrier.
Government policies, such as the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act and the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism, are pushing the ammonia industry toward low-carbon production methods. Subsidies for carbon capture (blue ammonia) and renewable energy use (green ammonia) are incentivizing producers to adapt, influencing market dynamics and investment patterns.
As per Ammonia Energy Association, the future markets for ammonia as a zero-carbon fuel and hydrogen carrier will help spur the development of newbuild, flexible, renewable ammonia plants.
The U.S. government is promoting the production of decarbonized ammonia by funding the manufacturers, which will further lead to advancement in ammonia production projects:
Every ton of ammonia produced using grey hydrogen emits around 2-3 tons of direct CO2e. For context, this is almost twice as carbon intensive as crude steel and roughly four times that of cement. Moreover, ammonia plants that use coal gasification for hydrogen production have an even higher emission intensity of nearly 4 tons of CO2e per ton of ammonia produced. Overall, ammonia synthesis is the largest CO2 emitter of all chemical industry processes.
Ammonia is indispensable in modern agriculture, serving as a vital component in the production of nitrogen-based fertilizers that are essential for achieving optimal crop yields and enhancing agricultural productivity. Nitrogen is one of the primary nutrients required for plant growth and development, often serving as the limiting factor in agricultural output.
As the world population continues to expand, the demand for food is projected to rise significantly, exerting increased pressure on agricultural systems to enhance yields and productivity.
The production of ammonia is energy-intensive, primarily due to the Haber-Bosch process, the predominant method used for synthesizing ammonia on an industrial scale. This process consumes significant energy and emits greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide (CO2).
Alternative nitrogen sources, such as organic compost, biofertilizers, and nitrogen-fixing cover crops, can also help mitigate soil degradation and water pollution associated with ammonia-based fertilizers.
Green ammonia, also known as renewable or carbon-neutral ammonia, is produced using renewable energy sources such as wind, solar, or hydroelectric power to generate hydrogen through water electrolysis. Moreover, green ammonia aligns with global efforts to combat climate change and reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
In the sustainable development scenario, the sector adopts the technologies and policies required to put it on a pathway aligned with the goals of the Paris Agreement. The Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario describes a trajectory for the ammonia industry that is compatible with the energy system, reaching net zero emissions globally by 2050.
| Study Period | 2021-2033 | CAGR | 7.6% |
| Historical Period | 2021-2023 | Forecast Period | 2025-2033 |
| Base Year | 2024 | Base Year Market Size | USD 160.14 Billion |
| Forecast Year | 2033 | Forecast Year Market Size | USD 308.71 Billion |
| Largest Market | Asia Pacific | Fastest Growing Market | North America |
Asia-Pacific is the largest and fastest-growing ammonia market, driven by the increasing population and rising food demand in countries like China and India. According to reports from organizations such as the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and the International Fertilizer Association (IFA), Asia Pacific accounts for a substantial share of global fertilizer consumption, underscoring the pivotal role of ammonia in sustaining agricultural productivity and food security initiatives. China, which is the world's largest ammonia producer, supplies more than 25% of the world market.
The North American region is a significant player in the global ammonia market, where the United States emerges as the dominant producer and consumer. The U.S. is one of the top importers of ammonia owing to its usage in agriculture and allied activities. The US produces a large amount of ammonia itself (the third largest) and imports a large amount of ammonia. The Republic of Trinidad and Tobago is the largest U.S. trade partner in ammonia, followed by Canada, and these two countries account for the majority of U.S. imports. Natural gas-based plants are the main source of ammonia production in the U.S., accounting for approximately 92% of the country’s ammonia production. Approximately 60% of the total ammonia production capacity in the United States is located in Louisiana, Oklahoma, and Texas, primarily due to their abundant natural gas reserves, which serve as the main domestic feedstock for ammonia production.
The Ammonia market is experiencing dynamic growth and diversification across the globe, with each country contributing uniquely to the advancement of this transformative field.
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Liquid segment dominates the market with the highest market revenue. Liquid ammonia is a crucial compound in numerous industrial processes, and this state of ammonia is achieved by cooling gaseous ammonia below its boiling point of -33.34°Celsius at standard atmospheric pressure. It has versatile applications owing to its higher density and liquid state, which help in its easy storage, transportation, and use as a refrigerant in industrial settings because of its high latent heat of vaporization and low boiling point, which are ideal for maintaining low temperatures, thereby making it indispensable in industrial refrigeration.
The agriculture segment holds the largest market share among the end-use segments. Ammonia is a critical component and key element in fertilizers. It is known for its high nitrogen content, which is essential for plant growth. Its nitrogen-rich nature promotes healthy crops and enhances plant growth, significantly contributing to agricultural productivity. Ammonia, when put into the soil, gives plants the nutrients they need, especially nitrogen, which is important for plant growth and is frequently a limiting factor in agricultural productivity. Ammonia's ability to bind atmospheric nitrogen and convert it into a usable form for plants through nitrogen fixation is one of its primary benefits in agriculture.
Direct channels lead the market by generating the highest revenue among all sales channels. One key aspect of direct selling is the ability to provide in-depth technical expertise and support, which is particularly important in the chemical industry, where products can be complex and require specialized knowledge and technical support. Moreover, direct selling enables manufacturers to have greater control over their brand messaging, pricing strategies, and customer service. By eliminating intermediaries, manufacturers can ensure that their products are represented accurately, and that customer inquiries and concerns are addressed promptly and effectively. Another advantage of direct selling is the potential for higher profit margins. By cutting out the middlemen, manufacturers can retain a larger portion of the revenue from each sale.
The global ammonia market is moderately consolidated with few of the players including YARA International, CF Industries Holding Inc, SABIC, Mitsui Chemicals, Inc, and OCI Global among others tying to increase their market share by undertaking strategic initiatives including merger, acquisition, new product development, and partnership. Regional companies like IFFCO and Sumitomo Chemical perform well due to their focus on agricultural applications, where fertilizers are critical. The “Others” category includes regional manufacturers and niche players who cater to local markets or specific industries. While the market leans toward consolidation, the presence of numerous smaller producers creates opportunities for competition and innovation, particularly in sustainable ammonia production techniques.
J.R. Simplot Company: An emerging player in the market
The J.R. Simplot Company is one of the global agribusiness manufacturers, with a diverse portfolio spanning agriculture, food production, and technology. Founded in 1929 by J.R. (Jack) Simplot, the company has grown into a privately held, multinational enterprise with operations across North America, Latin America, Asia Pacific, and other global markets. Simplot is also a leading frozen food manufacturer, supplying high-quality frozen potatoes (including French fries), vegetables, and other processed foods to retailers, restaurants, and foodservice operators worldwide. Notably, the company pioneered the first commercially viable frozen French fry, revolutionizing the global food industry.
Recent developments by J.R. Simplot
The global market is highly competitive, with a strong focus on green ammonia production. They play a crucial role across various industries, including agriculture, energy, and mobility, and their importance is expected to grow in the coming years. However, traditional production is energy-intensive and a significant contributor to greenhouse gas emissions, prompting a shift toward sustainable alternatives. With increasing concerns over climate change, industry participants are prioritizing production from renewable and environmentally friendly sources. The transition to these sustainable methods could not only reduce emissions but also position ammonia as a key component in global decarbonization efforts, supporting a more sustainable future for industrial and agricultural applications.
