The global autonomous (driverless) car market size was valued at USD 24.10 million in 2021. It is expected to reach USD 153.60 million by 2030, growing at a CAGR of 22.85% during the forecast period (2022–2030).
An autonomous, self-driving, or driverless car can sense its surroundings and move safely with little to no assistance from a human. Like a conventional car, an autonomous vehicle can travel anywhere and perform every task a skilled human driver would. These automobiles use several types of sensors, such as global positioning systems, light detection and ranging (LIDAR), sonar, radar, and inertial measurement units, to understand their surroundings. These cars also use actuators, algorithms, machine learning systems, and potent processors to run the software. Additionally, they have sophisticated control systems that interpret sensor data to determine the best path for navigation, obstacles, and appropriate signage.
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The rising number of automobile accidents has increased the demand for safe travel. Due to the rising demand for safe transportation, the autonomous (driverless) car market will grow. According to the NHTSA (National Highway Traffic Safety Administration), 94% of US road accidents in 2019 were caused by human error, including drunk driving, speeding, and other mistakes. Connectivity is the fastest-growing auto feature and is anticipated to generate USD 1 trillion by 2030. A connected vehicle provides an internet connection and other driver benefits, including safety warnings, automatic crash notifications, and improved engine controls. Connectivity helps driverless cars update their algorithms with user data. These factors are expected to influence the growth of the global autonomous (driverless) car during the forecast period.
Due to the high cost of developing, testing, and manufacturing autonomous or driverless vehicles, businesses are concentrating on enhancing R&D by adopting various partnerships and agreements. Autonomous driving technology is becoming increasingly popular, and many players in the automotive industry, from hardware to software companies, have started focusing on it. Additionally, businesses want to collaborate to reduce risk and get their project off the ground. For instance, Ford and Volkswagen declared in July 2019 that they would work together to advance the market for autonomous vehicles. The multibillion-dollar partnership may permit the companies to utilize one another's hardware and intellectual property. In June 2019, Lyft and Alphabet's Waymo autonomous driving business may deploy roughly ten vehicles in Phoenix. As a result, the alphabet is now a shareholder in both Lyft and Uber, which should speed up the deployment of autonomous vehicles on the road. Partnerships, collaborations, and investments made in the development of driverless and autonomous vehicles thus catalyzed the market's expansion during the forecast period.
There are security risks to the numerous networks that link autonomous vehicles and hacking, including the financial network, which handles toll and parking payments, roadway sensors, cameras, traffic signals, private home networks, and the electricity grid. However, the government is also actively looking for ways to reduce the risks brought on by cyber threats in autonomous vehicles and self-driving cars. As a result of the situation, cyber threats are likely to impede market growth over the forecast period.
With the growth of 5G technology, drivers can collaborate with other vehicles in a way impossible with human drivers. Fifth-generation wireless technology will connect almost everything with a fast, reliable, responsive network. According to experts, autonomous vehicle technology requires the widespread adoption of 5G technology. 5G is expected to offer passengers in autonomous vehicles premium infotainment services, making communications service providers an essential partner for data analytics, safety, and entertainment. 5G is one such opportunity for market players in the autonomous/driverless car market as it promises safer and smarter self-driving cars due to the above factors.
LiDAR is the foundation of autonomous driving because most companies use it to help vehicles understand their surroundings. LiDAR collects high-resolution 3D data around a vehicle to aid navigation. Like radar, it sends out infrared light pulses to measure their return time after hitting nearby objects. Accident rates can be decreasing reduced because of LiDAR technology. The technology compiles findings into a point cloud, which functions like a real-time 3-D map of the world and aids in driving. Autonomous vehicles see their surroundings with radars or cameras. Cameras provide details but need a machine learning program to create 3D images. These factors are anticipated to create opportunities for market growth during the forecast period.
| Study Period | 2018-2030 | CAGR | 22.85% |
| Historical Period | 2018-2020 | Forecast Period | 2022-2030 |
| Base Year | 2021 | Base Year Market Size | USD 24.10 Million |
| Forecast Year | 2030 | Forecast Year Market Size | USD 153.60 Million |
| Largest Market | North America | Fastest Growing Market | Europe |
By region, the global autonomous (driverless) car market is segmented into North America, Europe, Asia-Pacific, and the Rest of the World.
North America is the most significant global autonomous car market shareholder and is expected to grow at a CAGR of 21.38% during the forecast period. The United States is ranked first in the region, followed by Canada and Mexico. Over the past three years, there has been a noticeable increase in demand for self-driving cars in the North American region. The cooperation between the businesses in the US provides strong support for the demand. Automakers have begun deploying autonomous vehicles in the area in collaboration with other technology and ride-hailing businesses. Also, Canada joined the North American autonomous vehicle testing party after everyone else. Additionally, many Chinese businesses have worked with regional players over the past few years. In addition to the issues, Mexico's new trade agreement with the US and Canada has provided opportunities for the transfer of autonomous technology. However, infrastructure still needs to be improved in the coming years.
Europe is expected to grow at a CAGR of 20.90%, generating USD 41.33 billion during the forecast period. Smaller nations are also working to make the technology accessible outside of Europe's major automotive hubs. Numerous businesses in the area are collaborating with other market participants to create new technologies for autonomous vehicles. Most autonomous vehicles use electric powertrains to meet their emission targets. Levels 1 and 2 of automated vehicles that assist drivers are already on European roads. While self-driving cars (levels 3 and 4) are currently being tested and are likely to be available between 2020 and 2030, fully automated vehicles (level 5) are anticipated to be introduced by 2030. The Netherlands is the nation most prepared to support driverless cars. In terms of support from the government, in 2019, the Dutch government passed a bill allowing extensive testing of autonomous vehicles (AVs) without a driver inside. Road infrastructure, the presence of top-tier wireless networks, and the highest density of electric vehicle charging stations, in addition to the factors above, are anticipated to drive the market in the area.
Asia-Pacific countries, including China, Japan, and India, contributed a sizeable amount of the region's semi-autonomous vehicle market in 2020, accounting for more than 50% of the market in the region, as a result of the government's increased support for autonomous driving technology. These nations anticipate a potential demand for semi-autonomous vehicles during the forecast period. Many automakers are partnering with local ride-hailing services to deploy their vehicles in the autonomous taxis fleet. Introducing the new level 2, level 3, and level 4 autonomous vehicles is updating the portfolio of major automakers in the region. President Moon Jae-in of South Korea has plans to put fully automated vehicles on the market by 2027 and make his nation the first in the world to have only self-driving cars on the road. By 2025, the industry is anticipated to receive investments totaling about KRW 60 trillion (USD 50.7 billion) from the government and automakers to help it reach its objectives. More than two-thirds of that sum could come from Hyundai Motor Group, the biggest automaker in the nation. By 2024, the government may update the rules, set up the necessary traffic infrastructure, work on insurance regulations, and establish the duties of drivers. In contrast, automakers collaborate with institutions in India to conduct autonomous vehicle research. The market is anticipated to grow faster during the forecast period as active safety features, and advanced driver assistance becomes more common in new cars.
The markets for autonomous vehicles in South America, the Middle East, and Africa are still in their infancy. Nevertheless, the governments in these areas are taking the necessary actions to speed up the adoption of driverless cars. Over the following ten years, Dubai's transportation industry is anticipated to change. Brazilian and Argentinean nations in South America are still unprepared to evaluate autonomous driving technology. Developing nations like Russia, Mexico, and India have surpassed the nation in this segment. There are some ongoing R&D initiatives at universities, and Brazilian consumers tend to adopt new technologies quickly if the government can offer the right incentives and manufacturers can offer products at competitive prices. Innoviz Technologies introduced the InnovizTwo, a new sensor for its product line, in October 2020. The new automotive-grade high-performance LiDAR sensor provides a complete solution for all levels of autonomous driving. As samples of InnovizTwo become available in the third quarter of 2021, more automakers will be able to offer level 2 autonomous vehicles and level 3 automation safely. Considering all the market developments, the market for autonomous vehicles in these regions is anticipated to grow slowly over the forecast period.
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The global autonomous (driverless) car market is segmented by type.
Based on type, the global autonomous (driverless) car market is bifurcated into semi-autonomous vehicles and fully-autonomous vehicles.
The semi-autonomous vehicles segment is the highest contributor to the market and is expected to grow at a CAGR of 21.57% during the forecast period. Semi-autonomous vehicles are classified as having automation levels 1-3 by the SAE (Society of Automotive Engineers). Level 1 automation, or driver aid, has long been a feature of automobiles. Level 1 vehicles demand the driver to be attentive and ready to take over. Adaptive cruise control, lane keeping, and parking assistance are all features of level 1 vehicles. Audi, BMW, and Mercedes-Benz include level 1 automation in their latest models.
Level 2 automation, called partial assistance, includes Traffic-Aware Cruise Control and Autosteer with lane change, allowing automatic steering on public roads with speed limits. Volvo Pilot Assist, Mercedes-Benz Drive Pilot, Tesla Autopilot, and Cadillac Super Cruise have level 2 automation features. Level 3 automation involves an autonomous vehicle driving system that handles all dynamic driving tasks in hopes that a human driver will intervene appropriately. Dynamic driving includes steering, braking, accelerating, changing lanes, and monitoring the vehicle. Level 3 autonomous vehicles need significant technological advancement to learn, adapt, and improve.
Fully autonomous vehicles are those with level 4 or level 5 automation. SAE International calls level 4 automation high automation; these vehicles can drive themselves with a human. These vehicles start, steer, throttle, and brake while monitoring their surroundings and parking. When conditions are right, drivers can put their vehicles in autonomous mode and relax. When the car cannot handle a situation, it alerts the driver. If the driver ignores the warning, the car will drive itself. Daimler, Tesla, and Ford are testing level 4 automated vehicles. Waymo is the only company that has tested level 4 autonomous vehicles on non-employees or volunteers since 2015.
Gaining consumer trust and complying with regional safety regulations would delay the commercialization of Level 5 automated vehicles by at least a decade. Several startups and automakers plan to release level 4 autonomous vehicles. After passing independent driving tests, many automakers are expected to commercialize level 4 autonomous car models during the forecast period.
