The global autonomous bus door system market size was valued at USD 6 million in 2021 and is estimated to reach an expected value of USD 160 million by 2030, registering a CAGR of 44% during the forecast period (2022 – 2030).
The autonomous bus, also known as the self-driving bus, senses its surroundings and navigates by building an active 3D map using artificial intelligence (AI) software, light detection & ranging (LiDAR), RADAR, and cameras. There are many levels of autonomy, from partially autonomous cars needing a driver to fully autonomous vehicles that don't need one. Significant fuel volumes are burned while travelling at high speeds or accelerating and decelerating frequently. Lower emissions are produced because the autonomous bus uses less gasoline and batteries. The product benefits the environment as a result.
The global market for autonomous bus door systems is expected to grow as demand for bus rapid transit (BRT) buses rises. The need for autonomous bus door modules is expanding because of rising consumer demand for cars that are economical to operate, have excellent performance, and emit little emissions. A rise in linked infrastructure, an increase in demand for high-performance, high-performance, and low-emission vehicles, and factors like increased safety combined with lessened traffic congestion are all factors boosting the market growth.
Compared to traditional vehicles, autonomous vehicles provide several benefits, such as enhanced safety, reduced fuel consumption, less pollution, and reduced traffic congestion. An autonomous bus has many sensors, including LiDAR, RADAR, a camera, and GPS. These short-range and long-range sensors help a vehicle detect any object or obstruction in its path, reducing the likelihood of accidents. The short-range sensors provide information about moving objects close to the vehicle, while the long-range sensors provide information about fast-approaching vehicles.
Autonomous vehicles can also reduce traffic congestion. According to research from the University of Illinois, a single autonomous car surrounded by 20 human-driven vehicles can reduce traffic congestion by controlling its speed. Because fuel consumption rises when a vehicle slows down, deploying autonomous vehicles reduces fuel consumption. As a result of less traffic congestion and greater fuel efficiency, it is predicted that the market for self-driving buses will grow. The demand for automated bus door systems is expected to develop.
With the rapid adoption of the Internet of Things (IoT), the global transportation infrastructure is expanding rapidly. Cisco and IBM have developed digital platforms capable of automating street and traffic signals, optimizing the waste collection, and enhancing surveillance. The placement of IoT sensors in the streets of Las Vegas, for instance, has helped to alleviate traffic congestion and resolve environmental concerns. The connected infrastructure consists of parking lots, toll booths, intelligent streets, and traffic lights. Thus, the expansion of linked infrastructure fosters the adoption of autonomous buses, which stimulates the growth of the bus door system industry.
Autonomous vehicles are equipped with more than 50 sensors to improve safety and efficiency during operation. These sensors, including LiDAR, RADAR, and cameras, are mounted throughout these vehicles and contribute to forming a safety perimeter. These sensors can identify any obstruction that approaches the vehicle promptly. Nonetheless, these sensors are not inexpensive. A long-range LiDAR of good quality can cost up to USD 75,000. In addition to the hardware cost, these vehicles require software to retrieve sensor data for control purposes. Therefore, the production of vehicles and the large-scale deployment of self-driving buses with expensive gear offer significant hurdles for manufacturers. Thus, it is projected that the high production cost of self-driving buses will impede the expansion of autonomous bus door system trends.
The number of smart cities is increasing significantly around the world. The development of smart mobility in smart cities is partly a result of the emergence of disruptive technologies like IoT and connected gadgets. Significant investment in smart cities has resulted from developments in IoT and cloud-based technologies. Under the program for smart cities, several nations concentrate on transportation. For instance, the Chinese government is developing plans for a revolution in driverless vehicles. Around 300 Chinese cities, including Xinjiang and Nanjing, have launched smart-city initiatives, 93 concentrating on transportation. These might use the connected infrastructure to focus on developing self-driving vehicles, self-driving buses, and shared driving models for public transit.
Furthermore, China-based technology company Baidu unveiled the USD 1.52 billion "Apollo Fund" autonomous driving effort in September 2017. In 2021, this effort invested in 100 projects involving autonomous driving. Furthermore, it is anticipated that smart city projects will cost more than USD 100 billion globally. Therefore, the development of smart cities presents a significant potential opportunity for the major players active in the autonomous bus door systems market.
The global autonomous bus door system market is segmented by bus type, level of automation, mechanism, propulsion type, component, and region.
By bus type, the global market is segmented into the shuttle bus, city bus, intercity bus, coach, and BRT bus segments. The shuttle bus segment was the highest contributor to the market and is estimated to grow at a CAGR of 41.7% during the forecast period. Shuttle buses are any bus service intended primarily to shuttle passengers between fixed locations. Generally, shuttle buses are operated between short and medium journeys. A shuttle bus runs between two or more places regularly. The airport shuttle bus is an example of the same. These autonomous shuttle buses have applications on private roads, airports, and other places. For instance, New York city’s first self-driving shuttle service is now open for business, and Optimus ride operates six autonomous shuttles on private roads in Brooklyn. Further, an autonomous shuttle bus has started making trips at Brussels airport. The test rides are carried out without passengers as of now; to test the technology. The concept of connected mobility is opportunistic for market expansion.
The city bus segment is the second largest. Autonomous city bus technology is ready to be deployed for public transportation. And several manufacturers have also announced that they will deploy autonomous city bus fleets within the next few years. For instance, Volvo autonomous buses have already deployed a successful demonstration of autonomous buses wherein the self-driving bus successfully traveled between several places. Further, Nobina, a bus transport group, has also announced to deployment of Scania autonomous buses in Stockholm starting in 2020.
Based on door type, the global market is segmented into conventional, folding, sliding, coach, and inward gliding doors. The sliding plug doors segment was the highest contributor to the market and is estimated to grow at a CAGR of 44.3% during the forecast period. Sliding plug doors open horizontally, wherein the door is either mounted on or suspended from a track. Besides buses, these types of doors also have trams, metros, regional trains, and more applications. The market is expanding because sliding plug doors provide a large aperture for passengers to enter or exit without hindering access. The exceptional sealing performance and winter-proof design of sliding plug doors are additional features. Further, sliding plug doors offer more space for passengers inside the bus, which has led to its highest penetration. Such types of doors are standard on shuttles as well as long buses. BVG shuttles, YUTONG shuttles, Deutsche Bahn shuttles, and HEAT Minibus are some examples installed with sliding plug doors. Developments of smart city projects are opportunistic for market expansion.
Based on propulsion type, the global market is bifurcated into ICE and electric. The components segment is further divided into hardware, software, and solutions. The hardware segment is sub-segmented into door panels, seals, actuators, door controls, door accessories, and others. The electric segment was the highest contributor to the market and is estimated to grow at a CAGR of 44% during the forecast period. Battery electric vehicles (BEV) are gaining massive traction in the electric vehicle market owing to their advantages, such as changing perceptions toward adopting electric vehicles. Also, simple technology usage and low maintenance of battery electric vehicle compared to other electric vehicles supplements the growth of battery electric vehicle (BEV).
By mechanism type, the global market is bifurcated into pneumatic and electric mechanisms. The electric segment dominated the market and is estimated to grow at a CAGR of 45% during the forecast period. Electric bus doors have been used on shuttle buses, Coach, city buses, and others. The electric bus door system uses a direct current motor as a power supply, controlled by the power switch, which facilitates the auto operation of the door. In addition, electric doors have provision for manual door opening in case of emergencies, which drives the market's growth. The electric doors also prevent clipping (if the door gets blocked due to any object or passenger).
By automation, the global autonomous bus door system market is bifurcated into Level 4 and Level 5. The level 4 segment was the highest contributor to the market and is estimated to grow at a CAGR of 43.6% during the forecast period. Aeva, a Silicon Valley startup, has developed a smaller, more capable, and affordable version of its hardware for self-driving technology. This technology is expected to be incorporated by Volkswagen Autonomy, a division of Volkswagen that is working with a focus on the development of self-driving modules. Volkswagen Autonomy will use this technology in Volkswagen’s ID Buzz, a modern Volkswagen electric bus. In addition, the company intends to make a development fleet of these vehicles to test level 4 driving. Such developments in self-driving technologies for buses provide lucrative growth opportunities for the level 4 segment.
By region, the global autonomous bus door system market is segmented into North America, Europe, Asia-Pacific, and LAMEA.
North America was the highest revenue contributor and is estimated to grow at a CAGR of 40.8%. The North American region includes countries such as the U.S., Canada, and Mexico. The launch of a new range of self-driving buses on roads to offer transportation services to passengers and government initiatives for the development of driverless buses are anticipated to propel the growth of the self-driving bus market in North America. Leading bus manufacturers are launching autonomous technology programs to develop and deploy self-driving buses. For instance, Flyer, a bus manufacturer, has launched an autonomous technology program to deploy driver-assist and self-driving technology for public transit agencies.
Europe is the second largest region. It is estimated to reach an expected value of USD 84 million by 2030, registering a CAGR of 44.8%. Investment by governments of various countries for the development of self-driving buses and the launch of driverless buses on roads of different countries for public transport boost the growth of the self-driving bus market in Europe. Automobile giants in this region are demonstrating a new range of self-driving buses for selected public roads. For instance, Stagecoach, a transportation group, Alexander Dennis, a bus building company, and Fusion Processing Ltd., an autonomous driving technology provider, have demonstrated Europe’s first full-sized autonomous bus.
Asia-Pacific is the fastest-growing region. Factors like the development of self-driving bus technology by startups to incorporate the adoption of driverless buses for public transport and initiatives by leading automobile manufacturers to test self-driving buses are anticipated to propel the growth of the Asia-Pacific self-driving bus market. Research universities and automobile manufacturers are partnering to develop self-driving buses in this region. For instance, Volvo Buses and Nanyang Technological University, Singapore, have partnered and launched the world’s first full-size, autonomous electric bus, a 12-meter long single deck bus with a capacity of 80 passengers.
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