Viscosity Index Improvers Market

Market Overview

The global viscosity index improvers market size was valued at USD 4.0 billion in 2023 and is projected to reach USD 6.7 billion by 2032, registering a CAGR of 5.9 % during the forecast period 2024-2032. Rising electric vehicle (EV) adoption and expanding potential markets in emerging economies are the primary drivers of Viscosity Index Improvers Market growth.

Viscosity Index Improvers (VIIs) are additives used in lubricating oils to improve their viscosity-temperature properties. An oil's viscosity is an important feature determining its capacity to lubricate and protect machinery at various operating temperatures. VIIs are used to reduce the change in viscosity with temperature changes, ensuring optimal lubrication under various situations.

Lubricants reduce wear and tear, extending the life of machines. As a result, demand for lubricants increases, driving demand for the viscosity Index Improvers Market. Automobiles need braking fluids, transmission lubricants, engine lubricants, and so on, which must be replenished regularly to guarantee proper operation and longevity. As a result, the demand for high-quality lubricants that function at varied temperatures is increasing, complementing the demand for VI improvers and driving market expansion.

Highlights

• Olefin Copolymer accounts for the largest share of the market by type
• Manufacturing generates the highest revenue share in the market based on end-users.

Market Dynamics

Market Drivers:

Automotive Industry Growth

The rising automotive industry is a key driver of the viscosity index improvers market. As worldwide vehicle production rises, so does the demand for high-quality lubricants, notably those with effective viscosity index improvers, to satisfy the needs of modern engines. Global light vehicle production in 2023 is predicted to reach 89.8 million units, a 9.0% increase over 2022 levels that exceed projections in several countries, adding to suggested inventory restocking. Modern engines are engineered to function in various situations, including harsh temperatures and high-performance surroundings. Engine oils in modern automobiles frequently incorporate viscosity index improvers to ensure constant lubrication over a wide temperature range. For example, multigrade oils such as 5W-30 or 10W-40 use VIIs to maintain proper viscosity at low and high temperatures, improving engine protection.

Furthermore, the growing production of electric cars (EVs) contributes to this trend. While EVs require less lubrication than regular internal combustion engine vehicles, specialty lubricants containing VIIs remain critical for components like bearings and gears in electric drivetrains. Global electric vehicle (EV) sales are predicted to increase to 16.7 million in 2024 from 14 million in 2023. Canalys research projects that global EV sales will reach 13.7 million in 2024, representing a 29% growth. As the automotive industry evolves, focusing on fuel efficiency, emission reduction, and advanced powertrain development, the demand for lubricants containing efficient viscosity index improvers is projected to persist and rise. The above factors represent an influential Viscosity Index Improvers Market trend.

Market Restraints:

Fluctuating Crude Oil Prices

The pricing and availability of base oils obtained from crude oil significantly impact the market for viscosity index improvers. Changes in crude oil prices can substantially impact the cost dynamics of producing viscosity index improvers. According to the American Petroleum Institute (API), base oil expenses can make up a major component of the overall lubricant cost structure. Crude oil price variations directly impact the cost of producing base oils, influencing the costs of manufacturing lubricants, especially those with viscosity index improvers. According to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), Brent crude oil prices will average USD 84 per barrel in the first half of 2024. This decreased from an average of USD 78 per barrel in December 2023, partly attributed to OPEC+ production curbs. The EIA expects crude oil prices to rise slightly in the first quarter of 2024, from USD 78 per barrel in December 2023 to USD 85 in March 2024. 

Hence, Volatile crude oil prices pose issues for both lubricant makers and end users. The cost of base oils, a key component in viscosity index improver formulations, can fluctuate rapidly and unexpectedly, affecting overall production costs and pricing strategies in the viscosity index improvers market. Furthermore, the global economic climate and geopolitical variables influence crude oil price volatility. Economic downturns and geopolitical tensions can cause quick fluctuations in oil prices, affecting the whole lubricants business, including the viscosity index improvers market.

Market Opportunity:

Focus on Sustainability and Bio-Based Additives

Growing environmental consciousness and sustainability standards create an opportunity to develop and implement bio-based viscosity index improvers. To support eco-friendly initiatives, manufacturers can look into sustainable alternatives created from renewable sources. Bio-based additives from vegetable oils, esters, and other renewable feedstocks can increase the viscosity index. These additives provide lubricant formulators with a long-term option for improving the viscosity-temperature performance of lubricants. For example, ester-based lubricants are non-toxic, renewable, and generate no greenhouse gases. They can be employed as viscosity index promoters, antioxidants, detergents, emulsion stabilizers, and pour point reduction additives. This increase is due to the growing demand for environmentally friendly and biodegradable lubricants. Furthermore, more efficient, sustainable automobiles will increase lubricant production and consumption. 

Furthermore, several regulatory initiatives and certifications encourage using bio-based lubricants and additives, creating a favorable environment for implementing bio-based viscosity index improvers. In 2023, the European Union (EU) updated the Renewable Energy Directive (RED) known as RED III. RED III intends to increase the proportion of renewable energy in the EU's total energy consumption to 42.5% by 2030, with an indicative target of 2.5%. This is nearly twice the existing percentage of renewable energy in the EU. In June 2023, the Commission announced new rules governing the proportion of biofuels and biogas in mixed fuels. These blended fuels can be used to meet the Renewable Energy Directive's requirement for renewables in transportation.

Regional Analysis

North America Dominates the Global Market

The global viscosity index improvers market analysis is conducted in North America, Europe, Asia-Pacific, the Middle East and Africa, and Latin America.

North America is the most significant global viscosity index and is estimated to grow at a CAGR of 13.4% over the forecast period. The auto sector has risen steadily. Increased commercial vehicle sales, particularly light trucks and pick-up trucks used for short-distance trading and transportation, are predicted to boost demand for automotive lubricants in the country. The usage of viscosity index improvers will rise over the forecast period as the automotive sector develops. US vehicle sales are expected to reach 15.5 million units, representing an 11.6% increase from 2022. This is a 50% increase in the number of electric vehicles (EVs) sold in 2023 over 2022. 

In addition, increased production and exports of chemicals and pharmaceuticals and improved manufacturing output are predicted to drive demand for lubricant additives such as viscosity index improvers. According to a December 2022 article, the US chemical industry is anticipated to have a 1.2% reduction in production in 2023. According to a November 2023 article, US chemical exports fell 7.5% in 2023, followed by a 3.1% increase in 2024. The United States is projected to maintain its dominant position in the regional market. The automotive industry has experienced sustained expansion. Increased sales of commercial vehicles, particularly light trucks and pick-up trucks for short-distance trading and logistics, are predicted to raise demand for automotive lubricants in the country. 

Europe is anticipated to exhibit a CAGR of 13.9% over the forecast period. Russia is predicted to expand far faster than the European market during the forecast period in Eastern Europe. The rising use of high-performance engines has increased the demand for high-performance lubricants with the appropriate viscosity. Viscosity affects critical elements, including wear, contamination tolerance, energy consumption, oil and gas, automotive, metal and fabrication, power and energy transmission, chemicals, and general manufacturing, all of which use lubricants. These industries rely on transmission oils, process oils, metalworking fluids, drilling fluids, and other lubricants. Growing production and the development of new initiatives in Russia are likely to drive up the demand for viscosity index improvers in the industry.

Furthermore, the European aerospace sector is a global leader in manufacturing civil aircraft, engines, parts, and components. In 2019, the industry's exports totaled €109 billion. With an average yearly turnover of about USD 20 billion, Italy's aerospace sector ranks fourth in Europe and seventh worldwide. In addition, the country is a significant producer of advanced integrated systems. According to data from the Italian Aerospace Industry Federation (AIAD), most of the country's aerospace manufacturing enterprises can be found in a few geographical regions. These regions are Lombardy, Piedmont, Puglia, Lazio, Umbria, and Campania.

Asia-Pacific holds a significant market share. Due to its key market players, China is a leading producer and user of viscosity index improvers. Asia's dominance stems mainly from increased per capita disposable income and a sizeable on-road automobile fleet in developing economies such as China and India. Accelerating urbanization and rapid industrialization will likely impact the viscosity index growth in the lubricating oil market throughout the projection period. Global demand for these resources skyrockets as the globe relies on lubricants to improve performance efficiency.

Segmental Analysis

The global viscosity index improvers market is segmented based on type and end-user.

The market is further segmented by type into Polymethacrylate, Olefin Copolymer, and Polyisobutylene.

Olefin Copolymer accounts for the largest share of the market.

Olefin Copolymer

The Olefin Copolymer Segment has led the market and is predicted to develop at a high CAGR of ~3.7% over the forecast period. Olefin copolymer viscosity index improvers are another synthetic polymer commonly utilized in lubricants. These copolymers improve oil viscosity-temperature properties, resulting in constant lubrication across a wide temperature range. Olefin copolymer VI improvers are regarded for their adaptability and effectiveness in increasing the viscosity index of lubricating lubricants. Lubrizol's Oronite OLOA range of lubricant additives contains olefin copolymer viscosity index improvers. These additives are designed to increase lubricants' shear stability and performance in various applications, including automotive and industrial.

Polymethacrylate

Polymethacrylate viscosity index improvers are synthetic polymers with outstanding shear stability and high-temperature performance. These polymers are commonly utilized in lubricants to improve viscosity-temperature correlations and provide optimal lubrication in various operating circumstances. Polymethacrylate VI improvers are chosen because they resist viscosity loss under mechanical stress and can maintain a steady viscosity at high temperatures.

The market can be further bifurcated by end-users into Manufacturing, Food Processing, Mining, Construction, and Power Generation.

Manufacturing generates the highest revenue share in the market.

Manufacturing

The industrial industry relies significantly on machinery and equipment; thus, good lubrication is critical for sustaining operating efficiency. Viscosity index improvers ensure that lubricants used in manufacturing processes keep their proper viscosity throughout a wide temperature range. This is especially significant in high-speed, high-temperature production applications. Manufacturing machinery, including industrial gears, hydraulic systems, and metalworking equipment, frequently require lubricants that enhance the viscosity index. These additives serve to avoid wear and ensure smooth functioning in a variety of production processes. Statista predicts that the global manufacturing sector's output will expand, along with industrial production. This growth demonstrates the continuous need for effective lubrication solutions, including those with viscosity index improvers.

Mining

The mining sector employs heavy machinery that operates in harsh settings. Lubricants with viscosity index improvers are necessary for proper component lubrication and protection, particularly under severe mechanical stress and variable temperatures. Mining equipment, such as crushers, conveyors, and drilling machines, requires lubricants with viscosity index improvers to endure the rigorous conditions of mining operations. These additives help crucial mining equipment last longer and perform more reliably. The mining sector's expansion is impacted by rising demand for minerals and metals. As mining operations grow, there is a greater demand for effective lubrication solutions, such as viscosity index improvers, to improve the performance and longevity of mining equipment.

Impact of covid-19

The global economy is harmed by the COVID-19 pandemic, which has disrupted many business lines due to a downfall in demand from end-users and COVID standards and laws. Many businesses, including those in the industrial, automotive, and transportation sectors, have suffered due to lockdown regulations. People were forced to stay indoors, which reduced end-product consumption. The market is expected to increase dramatically in the coming years due to the events of COVID-19. However, due to the increasing cost of viscosity index improvers in end-use industries, the market is expected to grow faster during the forecast period, and it is expected to grow further in the future due to the compound's widespread use in some emerging applications.

Recent Developments

• January 2024: Evonik will introduce high-performance phosphate methacrylate VISIOMER® HEMA-P 100.
• January 2024- Three further Lubrizol Engineered Polymers sites achieved ISCC PLUS certification.
• February 2024- Chevron's output reached a record 3.1 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, driven by a 14% increase in the United States.